The PGA TOUR heads back to Texas this week for the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial. One of the TOUR's most iconic stops, Colonial is a par 70 that measures around 7,200 yards. If the wind picks up, it can play fairly difficult. If it’s calm, we’ll could see a winner near 20-under par.
Jordan Spieth is the betting favorite at +1000, but he's got plenty of company at the top of the board with Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Abraham Ancer, Tony Finau and Patrick Reed right behind him.
The lack of distance needed to succeed at Colonial levels the playing field a bit and that could leave the door open for a longshot or two to crash the party.
Here are our favorite longshot bets for the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge:
Jason Sobel
Talor Gooch (+10000)
Before looking it up, I would’ve guessed that Gooch was top-25 in strokes gained on approach shots this season, but instead he’s a mere 55th. That’s still obviously better than average and while his record at Colonial isn’t anything too special, with a T-29 his best result in three starts, I do think this one should suit his skillset.
If nothing else, his high floor has led to a bevy of made cuts recently, suggesting that even if you don’t want to take a chance on him outright, he’s a solid play for top-10/20 props and as a DFS play. I also like Harry Higgs, Doc Redman, Matthew NeSmith and Maverick McNealy as potential deeper sleepers, too.
Chris Murphy
Joel Dahmen (+11000)
The odds have dropped a touch on this play since the start of the week, but at triple-digits Joel Dahmen looks like a solid longshot for the Charles Schwab Challenge.
He comes in with solid form with his ball-striking, though his putting failed him to the tune of more than 5 strokes lost on the greens in his final round at the PGA Championship. Dahmen did finish 18th prior to that at the Wells Fargo, but the part that has me excited for him this week is the great iron play he’s shown in back-to-back tournaments.
The man with the bucket hat has gained 9.3 strokes on approach in his last two events, both of which featured high-quality fields. He also gained more than 12.5 strokes tee to green during those tournaments and rolls into Colonial Country Club in good form.
He’s finished inside the top-20 in two of his last three trips to this event, and putted well on these
greens back last year. If he keep his ball-striking going and find a hot putter this weekend, he can be in the mix to win this down the stretch.
Matt Vincenzi
Matt Kuchar (+7500)
Kuuuuuch!
Kuch is back, baby! Matt Kuchar is another golfer who has flashed some recent form, including a 12th-place finish last month at the Valero Texas Open.
Throughout his excellent career, Kuchar has been one of the best golfers in the state of Texas. Prior to the PGA Championship, Kuch gained more than 3.0 strokes putting in each of his past three starts. Historically, short plotters and great putters have won at Colonial and few fit that mold better than the 42-year-old. Kuchar also had an outstanding showing at the Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club.
With nine PGA TOUR wins on his resume, Kuch is a golfer who has extreme upside and win equity. You can be sure he will bring his A-game this week in hopes for another successful trip to the Lone Star State.
Landon Silinsky
Brendon Todd (+12000)
Todd’s price this week is the epitome of why you need to shop around for the best number possible. At the time of writing, Todd is listed as low as +3200 on some overseas sportsbooks, meaning he likely has some sharp people backing him this week. You can still get him at 120/1 on FanDuel which is by far the best number around. He’s 35 points shorter than that on DraftKings this week. Always shop!
Todd was shaking off some rust at the PGA Championship after a positive COVID test forced him to withdraw from the Wells Fargo. Prior to that he had not played since the RBC Heritage which was over a month ago. He’s had somewhat of a career resurgence these past couple seasons and he does have a top-five finish at Colonial back in 2014. His lack of distance off the tee will not penalize him while his elite putting stroke could have him in contention at a very nice price this week.
Bryan Berryman
Patton Kizzire (+12000)
8.6 and 8.1… Those are the number of strokes Kizzire has gained, collectively, over the last two events on approach and putting respectively. Those are outrageous numbers that are admittedly unsustainable, yet deserve serious attention in a week where I’m looking for hot irons and a hot putter.
Throughout his career, Patton has made his money with the irons and flat stick while getting dusted in SG: Off the Tee numbers due to his lack of length and accuracy. At Colonial, losing strokes off the tee won’t hurt nearly as much as it does at other courses given the 7,054 yard par 70 set up with only two par 5s.
If he can continue the recent hot stretch of iron play, he could be the dark horse that finds his way to the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
