If it wasn't clear before, Collin Morikawa's presence as a dominant player is in full view now. He came into this week in the Bahamas off of a win at the DP World Tour Championship where he ran down Rory McIlroy on Sunday. This week, he proposed to his longtime girlfriend , and now he heads into the final day of the week with a five-shot lead over a number of big names.
Morikawa shot a bogey-free, 8-under 64 on Saturday to climb into the lead. He was nearly flawless, while all of the other contenders around him stumbled somewhere along the way. He will be joined in the final pairing by Brooks Koepka who bounced back from a double bogey on his outward nine to post a 3-under 69. The field condenses from there, which could bring a number of players back into the mix if Collin struggles at all on Sunday.
While we know that Morikawa can get it done in any big event, one thing we haven't seen him do much across his early wins is to hold an overnight lead into the final round. He was only in that position at this year's WGC Concession, with all of his other victories coming from behind on Sunday. It will be interesting to see if he plays any differently with all of the pressure and focus on him tomorrow, but that may just be wishful thinking for those looking to chase him down.
Best Bets
Patrick Reed +700 to Win without Morikawa (DraftKings)
If you want to know just how confident DraftKings is that Morikawa will close the deal on Sunday, they felt the need to create an entirely separate market without him. It provides a little intrigue in an otherwise likely boring Sunday at Albany as Morikawa is -400 to close out the win.
I'll take a bite in this alternate market with a guy I've been playing all week, Patrick Reed. He has shown completely different form this week than what we saw from him on TOUR this fall. Reed had one of the better Saturdays in the field with a bogey-free, 5-under 67 to climb to 12-under on the week.
He is just one shot short of Brooks Koepka who would be considered the leader in this market for Sunday. I think Reed will be at an advantage not playing with Morikawa tomorrow, as he will be able to be aggressive and not see what is going on behind him, while Koepka will know what's going on throughout the round.
Reed is always someone that when he shows some form in a week, he generally stays consistent. If we can get one more solid round from him tomorrow, he could be in position to win this bet at a strong +700.
Justin Rose +115 over Justin Thomas in Round 4
In a battle of the Justins, I will take the one with a bit more to play for on Sunday. Justin Rose has to be looking to move up the leaderboard to take advantage of some needed OWGR points, while I imagine Justin Thomas is enjoying himself watching his Crimson Tide win the SEC Championship.
They have both been up and down this week as they've struggled to avoid the big number, which ended their hopes of winning this event. There isn't a lot on the surface to separate these two for the week, so I'll take the solid number on Rose with the added bonus of a nice narrative in our favor.
