While many eyes in the sports world will be on Week 9 of the NFL season on Sunday, it may be hard to beat the set-up in store for the final round in Mexico. The TOUR has a best-case scenario with young star Viktor Hovland looking to win the Mayakoba for the second-straight year, but he'll needing to hold off the likes of Justin Thomas and Talor Gooch to do it.
Hovland put together the best round of the day on Saturday as he shot a 9-under 62 to build a two-shot lead going into the final round. Talor Gooch had a great round of his own with a 63 and will join Hovland in the final group, just two shots back. JT looks to make a move of his own as he will start the final day with a three-shot deficit after a bogey-free, 7-under round of his own. He will play alongside Carlos Ortiz in the penultimate pairing.
The three players at the top have separated themselves from the rest of the field as Ortiz is the lone player at 14-under and five shots back, leaving the rest of the field with at least a six-shot margin to make up. This is the first time this week we have some real tangible separation, making it feel like a three-player contest on Sunday, especially with two of the biggest names in the world leading the way. Let's take a look at what's available in the odds market to find some value on Sunday.
Best Bets
Justin Thomas +430 (FanDuel)
If you follow my writing throughout the year, you know I like to stick with my earlier reads when I have an outright in play. That is the case this week as I grabbed JT after the first round at +3000, and he has moved well into contention going into Sunday's final round. It also helps that FanDuel is giving him the longest odds of the three at +430, creating some decent value for Thomas to try to catch Hovland.
Thomas started slow this week with two bogeys early in his opening round, but he has now gone 28 holes without a bogey and has been the best player in the field across the last 45 holes. He may get to the finish on Sunday and really regret his Thursday start, but I'll keep riding the hot hand and look for him to come through with the win.
Scottie Scheffler Top 5
It will be difficult for many players to work their way into the top three without a good bit of help from the guys up top. If they continue to play well, we will likely be left with two slots for the remainder of the top five, and for me, one of those slots are reserved for Scottie Scheffler.
The former Texas Longhorn played from the final group on Saturday and was cruising right along with a nice round before an errant shot off the tee on hole 14 led to a crushing double-bogey. That one hole seemed to really derail his round as he would just par out for a 1-under 70. Despite his round, he still rates as the best player on approach this week, hitting more than 88% of his greens in regulation. I expect he will bounce back with a strong Sunday finish, and once odds are released, he will be a great bet for me to slide into the back end of the top five.
Fade Carlos Ortiz
The books are slow this evening is releasing odds for matchups and the other markets outside of the winner. So, I will adapt a bit, and go back to my traditional buy-and-fade formula, to highlight a final-round fade for me with Carlos Ortiz.
Ortiz was my longshot pick to win to start the week, but he wilted on Saturday, hitting just eight greens in regulation. That mark tied for the worst in the field in Round 3, but he was able to maintain his position with a strong short game. One issue that may have caused his shaky play in the third round was a shoulder injury which forced him to withdraw at the ZOZO, and he admitted that was still bothering him. These factors together make for an easy fade for me in the final round in all markets, but especially matchups and Showdown in DFS.
