And just like that, we're heading towards the stretch run of the 2020/21 PGA TOUR season.
This is just the third-ever Rocket Mortgage Classic and the two previous winners couldn't have been more different. Last year's winner, Bryson DeChambeau, was the pre-tournament favorite. But two years ago it was Nate Lashley, an alternate entry who didn't even have pre-tournament odds, who lifted the trophy in Motor City.
What we're trying to say is, this tournament is going to be pretty tough to forecast. That won't stop us, though.
Check out our favorite outrights, longshots, matchups and prop bets for the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic:
2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks
Outrights
Jason Sobel
Bryson DeChambeau (+775)
Bryson owns a few sharp edges this week. Following the U.S. Open – during which pre-tourney favorite Jon Rahm won, of course – I joked in a column that this is why we should always hammer the favorite. The truth is, I’ll usually only list a favorite as my fave outright maybe once or twice each year, but this feels like another smart situation to chase a short number.
Call this one the Occam’s Razor play – sometimes the simplest solution is the best solution.
Josh Perry
Garrick Higgo (+5000)
Garrick Higgo has already shown he can take down one of these weaker field events, and he’s also capable of going super low as we saw during his run in Europe. He’s coming off a missed cut last week at the Travelers, but that was because he lost nearly four strokes around the green. He was above the field average with both ball-striking categories and putting in a stronger field than this one.
Chris Murphy
Bryson DeChambeau (+775)
This feels like one of those weeks where we get to the end, and wonder why we gave any consideration to anyone outside of the top man on the board, Bryson DeChambeau. There is a very apparent path to him simply running away with this event, and not looking back. Only one player, the prior version of Matthew Wolff, was able to hang with Bryson for most of the week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in 2020, and even then he fell short by three strokes.
The course at Detroit Golf Club sets up really perfectly for Bryson as there are easy to hit fairways, but also little danger around the course to prevent him from swinging out of his shoes on every hole. He will look to do that again this week, and if he has his typically strong putter once again, it will be curtains for the rest of this fairly weak field. I’m not overthinking it this week, and simply putting most of my eggs in the DeChambeau basket.
Matt Vincenzi
Joaquin Niemann (+2500)
I strongly believe that Joaquin Niemann is going to start to pile up wins on the PGA TOUR, but I haven’t backed him in a long while because I didn’t love the course fits for him. That changes this week.
Detroit Golf Club is the perfect setup for “The Wonder Kid”. Niemann ranks no worse than 22nd in the field in all five of my most important statistical categories this week. He is extremely long off the tee and gained 14.7 strokes on the field at The Travelers Championship in Driving Distance: Gained. The wide open layout this week will allow the 22-year-old Chilean to let it rip off of the tee and should have easy approach shots into the green.
Niemann also ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Par 5. With four par 5’s at Detroit Golf Club and his power, he should be able to take real advantage of the birdie and eagle opportunities. Niemann’s biggest detractor of late has been his concerning around the green play. The green in regulation percentage at Detroit Golf Club is about 8% higher than the average PGA TOUR event. With his distance off the tee combined with the wide open layout I don’t anticipate around the green play being a major factor this week.
All signs point to Joaquin Niemann having a great chance to earn his second PGA TOUR victory at The Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Landon Silinsky
Jason Kokrak (+3000)
Full disclosure I do believe Bryson DeChambeau is the most logical choice to win this week, however, he is about 7/1 at most sports books, making it difficult to back him considering how variant golf tournaments can be. Instead, we’ll look towards the only other two-time TOUR winner on the year teeing it up this week, Jason Kokrak.
Few things need to be said at this point. He ranks 13th on TOUR in par-five scoring (a critical statistic this week), 23rd in driving distance and No. 1 in SG: Putting (over his past 48 rounds.) The Ohio native also gained over two strokes per round tee-to-green on the field the last time he played this event back in 2019, where he finished T-29. Kokrak lost strokes putting that week, something that’s unlikely to happen again this week.
This field is not great by any stretch, so getting 30/1 on a two-time winner seems like fantastic value.
Rob Bolton
Bryson DeChambeau (+775)
Sobel and Murph beat me to it. My message was going to be the same. It paid off with Jon Rahm as the favorite at the U.S. Open. Your job is to multiply the investment for the payday.
Longshots
Jason Sobel
Patrick Rodgers (+16000)
In the top-30 on the list of driving distance leaders this season, I expect that length to help him this week. For a much-heralded former phenom who finished runner-up to Charles Howell III in a playoff three years ago, it might take a big week against a lesser field to propel him back into the public consciousness.
Josh Perry
Sepp Straka (+8000)
Sepp Straka has finished eighth and 11th in his two starts here and was 10th last week at the Travelers where he finished fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach. I was hoping for a bigger number since he had struggled a little prior to last week. But 80/1 is enough to get me to bite.
Chris Murphy
Brandt Snedeker (+8500)
If I am adding any names to my card this week beyond Bryson, it will be with longshot types that may be able to find the magic this week. Brandt Snedeker fits that bill as he will also benefit from wide fairways, and the short nature of this course will put wedge in his hand on approach. He is one of the best players in the field on approaches inside of 150 yards, which will be a common occurrence during this tournament.
Sneds has had mixed results in his two starts at DGC, following his top-5 finish in 2019 with a missed cut last year. The one area that he was consistent between the two tournaments was gaining strokes on the greens as he’s gained 9.5 strokes on the field at Detroit Golf Club across six rounds.
All of these factors combine to make the Vanderbilt alum an attractive option at these extended odds.
Matt Vincenzi
Byeong-hun An (+16000)
First of all: Yes, I’m serious.
Although he is coming off of a missed cut and has only one top-10 in the past year, there are reasons to believe in Byeong-hun An this week. Despite the missed cut at The Travelers, his statistics were actually impressive. An gained strokes both off of the tee and on approach for the second consecutive week; which is the first time he has done that since October of 2020.
While the stats are decent, the main reason I am intrigued with An this week is his history on Donald Ross tracks. At the 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic, Benny finished 13th when he was also coming off of a missed cut in the week prior at The Travelers. An also has some success at Sedgefield Country Club, which is another Donald Ross design and home of the Wyndham Championship. In his most recent start at Sedgefield (2019), he finished in third.
It’s most certainly a longshot, but there is reason to believe Benny An could contend at Detroit Golf Club this week.
Landon Silinsky
Cameron Tringale (+4500)
Not sure Tringale can be classified as a sleeper at 45/1, but it does seem like he’s going overlooked a little this week. He’s one of 18 players to make the cut at this event in both year’s it’s been held and posted strong finishes (T-30, T-5) both times. His game has been a little up and down of late, but he gains on average 1.6 strokes per round tee-to-green on the field at Detroit Golf Club.
He’s also a slightly better putter on poa, which is what’s featured this week. Tringale has been in contention on multiple occasions this season and has four top-10s to show for it. He’s still searching for that elusive first PGA TOUR victory, and the way he’s been playing there’s no reason to think it can’t come at a track he clearly enjoys quite a bit.
Rob Bolton
Troy Merritt (+10000)
He’s among my five Sleepers at PGATOUR.com. The gist is that he’s done his best work throughout his career in the tournaments in between and opposite the marquee competitions. The two-time PGA TOUR winner is 101st in the FedExCup, so he’s a virtual lock to keep his job.
All three of his top 10s this season have occurred during the 6-for-7 stretch on which he rode into Motown.
Props & Matchups
Jason Sobel
Joaquin Niemann Top-5 Finish (+400)
The youngster didn’t play poorly last week, but three scores of 68 or better were still only good enough for a middling result. He finished T-5 in his only start in Detroit two years ago and seems primed for a strong title contention soon.
Chris Murphy
Doc Redman Top-5 Finish (+1000)
I am going to hedge my desire to continue chasing that inaugural victory for Doc Redman by taking him as a top-5 bet this week. I hope he can continue to play well enough to slide in right behind DeChambeau, to allow me to cash them both.
Redman has shown a liking for the track at Detroit Golf Club where he’s made the cut in both appearances, including a runner-up finish in 2019. He has improved his game since that time, especially on the greens, which will come in handy on a course that has shown to be heavily reliant on strokes gained putting.
We still get a solid number for another finish near the top, and on BetMGM they pay all placement ties in full, which makes this one even more attractive.
Matt Vincenzi
Doc Redman Top-10 Finish (+500)
With two top-10 finishes in his past five starts, Doc (Chalk) Redman is starting to regain the form that had many intrigued with his potential last season. Redman finished 62nd last week, but did so while gaining 3.9 strokes on approach. The 23-year-old got especially hot on Sunday when he gained 2.0 strokes on approach and will be looking to carry that momentum with him to Detroit.
Historically, Redman plays easy courses much better than he does hard courses, gaining 0.8 strokes per round in easy events as opposed to playing moderate and easy events at roughly field average. Redman is also a bit of a Donald Ross design specialist. He has four top-3 finishes in his career, and two of those are at Donald Ross designs; including a runner-up finish at Detroit Golf Club in 2019.
The Rocket Mortgage Classic feels like a great bounce-back spot for Doc.
Landon Silinsky
Doc Redman (-102) over Brendon Todd
Continuing with the Doc Redman theme here, I’ll go with a head-to-head instead of a prop.
Brendon Todd is one of the most vanilla golfers on TOUR. He ranks 205th of 206 qualified players in driving distance on the year, only edging out K.J Choi. While he does make a good amount of cuts, it usually results in an average finish. His putter has to be incredibly hot for four rounds if he’s going to contend, so instead we’ll side with Redman, who’s been locked in with his irons of late.
It also helps that the Doc has a runner up and a T-21 in two trips to Detroit. Redman has some win equity this week, so getting him as a dog to the short hitting Todd seems like a no brainer.
Rob Bolton
Make-the-Cut Parlay: Rickie Fowler, Phil Mickelson and Doc Redman (+400)
I love myself the parlays and we love ourselves some Doc Redman in Detroit. I think I’m batting about .500 in the parlays, and this is the only one that caught my attention. Lo and behold, it’s adorned with a nice line.
I’m retreating into the simplicity of Redman cashing but it’s reliant on a pair of wild cards to pay off. Fowler’s form has improved since he likely was aware that his wife was pregnant (and before they announced it publicly a week ago). Mickelson is 2-for-3 since winning the PGA Championship.
Let’s go, boys.
