Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.
The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum heading into this season.
Below, I have outlined the matchups that have shown the most value in my simulations this week at the Country Club of Jackson for the Sanderson Farms Championship.
For every matchup I will provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at, and why I believe it is a profitable bet. I felt like the lines were pretty sharp at the sportsbooks this week, but I did find three bets I like that the model backed up.
Let’s get to it!
All three lines this week are courtesy of FanDuel.
Mito Pereira (-112) over Si Woo Kim
My line: -172
The only hesitation for me on this line is the lack of data we have on Pereira. However, the data we do have is pretty jaw dropping.
As I touched on in our best bets this week, Mito has gained over 31 strokes tee-to-green in his last six tracked PGA TOUR events. He’s a ball-striking machine who has shown tremendous consistency of late.
Contrast that with Si Woo Kim, who ranks 128th in this field in the last 24 rounds in strokes gained on approach, and you can see why my model loves this matchup.
I make this line -172 in Pereira's favor, giving us close to a 10% edge here.
Again, the lack of data here on Pereira does need to be taken into account. But from what we’ve seen lately, I love him to come out on top in this matchup.
Will Zalatoris (-142) over Si Woo Kim
My line: -161
I touched on Kim’s struggles in the above section, and he’s a player that I am comfortable targeting in my matchup bets this week.
While this bet is certainly a Si Woo fade, it is equal parts a Will Zalatoris endorsement.
In his relatively short time on TOUR, Zalatoris has impressed with his consistent ball striking and scoring prowess. That skillset was on full display in his last three tracked events, where he gained over 16 strokes tee-to-green against the field.
At the Fortinet Championship the week before the Ryder Cup, he gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.4 strokes off the tee on his way to an 11th-place finish.
Zalatoris is playing well and sets up perfectly to attack a golf course this week that favors consistent ball strikers. Lay the juice in this matchup.
Patton Kizzire (-112) over C.T. Pan
My line: -130
Kizzire has turned into a very consistent player over the course of the last two seasons. He’s coming off of arguably the best season of his career in 2020-2021, where he made 24 of 30 cuts and had five top-10 finishes. He’s one of the best putters on tour, averaging a full stroke gained on the field over his career.
I like him in this matchup against a boom/bust player in C.T. Pan, who has been struggling of late, missing four of his last six cuts.
