Fresh off the excitement of the Ryder Cup, the PGA Tour heads to Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship, with one of last week’s stars, Sergio Garcia, as the reigning champ.
This event has been somewhat elevated in recent years after a long history as an opposite field event. For decades, this event, under a variety of names, was played the same week as the Masters, the Open Championship, the Tour Championship, the Ryder Cup, or other tentpoles of the golf schedule.
Since 2014, it has been played at the Country Club of Jackson and rose to be a main event on the golf schedule in 2018, attracting a strong crop of PGA Tour players looking to kickstart their 2022 chase for the FedExCup.
Keegan Bradley to be the Top American (+2200, DraftKings)
In Bradley’s only trip to this event, last season, he fared well, scoring a top five finish. Among the players in this week’s field, he has the most strokes gained per round at the Country Club of Jackson, trailing only last year’s champion, Sergio Garcia.
Bradley enters this week playing some of his best golf in a long time. Over the last three months, Bradley ranks 10th in the world in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green per round, with his irons particularly hot and ranking fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach over that time.
His tee to green play has been hampered by an ice cold putter. If he can straighten that out, on a course where he played well and gained strokes on the green last season, he’ll contend.
Carlos Ortiz as Top Player from the “Rest of the World” (+1400, BetMGM)
This prop bet is an odd market. Sportsbooks pool the players not already culled into another nationality bet, like Americans, Europeans, Australians, South American, and certain Asian nationals stripped away, leaving an odd assortment of Canadians, South and Central Americans, and other wild cards in a pool together.
Ortiz stands out among that group, with top five finishes here in both 2018 and 2019. DataGolf marks him as gaining the most strokes per round among players who have played eight or more times at the Country Club of Jackson.
BetMGM’s odds in this market are extra enticing, with most other books offering Ortiz at +1000.
David Lipsky to Finish Top 20 (+650, FanDuel)
Among the new influx of players who just earned their Tour cards, there are going to be some players who jump out early as sleeper plays in their rookie seasons. Lipsky is not your average rookie, earning his card on the Korn Ferry Tour at age 33 after a decade as a journeyman around the world. He’s well-suited for this course in his current form.
DataGolf shows that 40.7% of the Strokes Gained required to win at this event in recent years came on the greens. That’s nearly five percentage points higher than the typical PGA Tour event. The flatstick will be key this week.
In the last three months, according to strokes gained data, no one in the world has putted better than Lipsky. That’s the case over the past six months as well. He is lightning hot on the greens, fueling his promotion to the PGA Tour.
If he can keep that form, he’ll earn some FedEx Cup points early in his rookie year. In two of his last three events with the big hitters on Tour, Lipsky has found his way into the top 25 on the leaderboard.
