The one thing I learned about golf when I fell in love with the game over 15 years ago; whether you’re playing it, watching it or betting on it, it always finds a way to humble you.
We’ll look to turn the tide this week for the most established field of this young PGA TOUR season at the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas.
Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.
The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum heading into this season.
Below, I have outlined the matchups that have shown the most value in my simulations this week at TPC Summerlin. For every matchup I will provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.
Let’s get to it!
Cameron Tringale -105 over Sungjae Im
My line: -162
Tringale is rating out amongst the top players in my model for this week. Based on my course regression data, TPC Summerlin significantly de-emphasizes length off the tee while placing a premium on iron play and short game. Those are two categories in which Tringale excels.
Over the last 50 tracked rounds Tringale ranks sixth in this field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, seventh in Strokes Gained: Putting, and 27th in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Let’s compare these numbers against his opponent in this matchup, Sungjae Im. Over the same time frame, Im ranks 99th in approach, 91st in putting and 10th in around the green. It’s clear to see why my model gives this bet a 10% edge over the current betting line.
While Sungjae has been playing better of late, the edge clearly goes to Tringale in this matchup.
Paul Casey -176 over Marc Leishman
My line: -227
I tend to stay away from these sorts of lines, as the juice is typically not worth the squeeze. But with my model showing nice value on the line, I dove in a little deeper.
There’s a growing sample size dating back over a full calendar year that points to Marc Leisman not being the same player he once was. Over the last 50 rounds, he ranks 55th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 92nd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green in this field. Throughout his struggles he’s had to rely heavily on his putter to keep him in contention most weeks.
In contrast, Paul Casey ranks 1st in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach in both the last 50, and the last 24 rounds. He’s consistently been one of the best ball strikers on tour and fits what this course will demand this week.
As usual, I do have concerns about Casey’s hot and cold short game which leaves a lot to be desired most weeks
Since ball striking is a more predictable and reliable statistic and contributes more to a golfer’s final score at this course, I’ll be betting on the player who relies on that to come out on top over the one who relies on the putter.
Patrick Reed -152 over Matthew Wolff
My line: -186
This is an interesting matchup, as both players have a boom-or-bust quality to their game.
However, I think the data is pretty clear that Patrick Reed booms more and busts less than Wolff does.
Over the course of his great career, Reed has proven he is a short game master. In the last 100 rounds, Reed ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and ninth in Strokes Gained: Putting. In that same time frame, Wolff ranks 129th around the green and 39th putting.
While they grade out as relatively equal in the strokes gained approach category, Reed clearly has a massive edge in short game. Given that Wolff’s greatest weapon (his length off the tee) will be diminished this week due to the course setup, I love Reed to come out on top in this matchup.
