Valspar Championship 2021 Betting Odds: Justin Thomas, Corey Conners Among Favorites at Copperhead Course

The PGA TOUR wraps up the Florida portion of its schedule this week with the 2021 Valspar Championship at the ever-popular Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Golf Resort in Palm Harbor, Fla.

The field for the Valspar certainly feels top heavy as there are seven members of the OWGR top-20 making the trip to western Florida. That said, there is a clear twosome to beat at Copperhead this week.

The Favorites

Dustin Johnson (+1000) may be the World No. 1, but World No. 2 Justin Thomas (+900) is the betting favorite this week. JT hasn't played all that much over the last few months but he's made an impact when he has teed it up. Thomas has a win at THE PLAYERS and four top-20 finishes in his seven starts worldwide in 2021. Copperhead's narrow fairways and challenging greens will put an emphasis on ball-striking and JT certainly passes that test as he ranks second on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach this year.

While Thomas has been consistent for most of the year, DJ has been a bit out of sorts since finishing T8 at the Genesis in mid-February. Despite the dip, the 2020 Masters champion is still commanding a lot of respect from oddsmakers at 10/1. Johnson may be a bit out of form, but we aren't that far removed from DJ's torrid run between the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021, so draw a line through DJ at your own risk.

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Perhaps the most surprising price on the board this week is Corey Conners at +1400. While Conners has certainly put together an impressive stretch of golf over the past year, to see his name above the likes of Patrick Reed (+1600), Viktor Hovland (+2000), Tyrrell Hatton (+2200) and Sungjae Im (+2500) is a bit jarring. Long a a trendy sleeper pick among hardcore bettors because of his immaculate ball-striking, Conners has now played his way into the mainstream.

Paul Casey, the two-time defending champion at this event, is also just behind Conners at +2000. Not only does Casey have tremendous course history at Innisbrook, but the 43-year-old has also enjoyed a great start to 2021. Casey is coming off a missed cut at the RBC Heritage, but if you look past that you'll see that he's collected a win and six top-12 finishes in eight starts worldwide in 2021.

Abraham Ancer, Russell Henley and Scottie Scheffler round out this section of the board at +2800.

Mid-Tier

A couple of wily veterans headline this section of the board, starting with Louis Oosthuizen (+3300). Still searching for his first-ever win in the United States, Louis finished runner-up with Charl Schwartzel at last week's Zurich Classic. Oosthuizen has yet to miss a cut in 2021 and has a pair of top-11 finishes (not including the Zurich) to his name this year. Louis will often fly under the radar because he hasn't ever won in this country but his performance at the Zurich will likely keep his name in play this week.

Justin Rose (+4500) could be one to keep your eye on this week. The former World No. 1 seemed to have put the pieces of his game back together at Augusta and that could be enough for bettors at this price.

Although not as drastic as Conners, the price on Emiliano Grillo (+4000) is a head-turner. The 28-year-old Argentinian has long tempted bettors at big prices thanks to his terrific ball-striking, but he could never quite put the rest of his game together to be worth backing consistently. That may not be the case anymore, though, as Grillo is coming off a runner-up finish at the RBC Heritage and has finished 22nd-or-better in five of his last seven starts.

Notable Longshots

When a player is as out of sorts as Henrik Stenson (+20000) was since the restart in 2020 you are looking for baby steps back towards contention. Well, the Swede has shown minor signs of a resurgence lately with a T38 at Augusta and a T11 (playing with Rose) at the Zurich Classic. Those results are nothing to write home about, but considering that Stenson missed six cuts in a row before The Masters, they may get your Stenson senses percolating just a little bit at a number this deep.

I would advise you to stay away from betting Phil Mickelson to win, even at +15000. Perhaps Lefty can get hot and sneak his way onto the leaderboard, but if you want to be a part of that journey you may be better off betting Phil to be first-round leader or to finish inside the top-20.

If you're the type of person who gets a kick out of throwing a fiver on someone way down the board then Camilo Villegas (+25000) could be your man this week. At 250/1, you can't expect Villegas to win, but he could provide you with a fun sweat with the way he's played of late. Villegas has missed his fair share of cuts this year, but he's also finished T8 at the Honda, T17 at the Valero (where he was the first-round leader) and T25 at the RBC Heritage, so he's certainly shown he can give himself a chance in a field like this one.

2021 Valspar Championship Odds

via DraftKings