I don't know where to start after that one.
Hit only one ball in the water and we're cashing outrights. Don't make a mess of the par 5 and we're at least in the playoff.
But alas it wasn't to be for Harris English, so we move on to the final event of the PGA TOUR regular season.
Players get one last chance to clinch a berth in the FedEx Cup playoffs and secure their TOUR status for next season.
The Course
The Wyndham Championship takes place at Sedgefield Country Club, a Donald Ross design that is pretty well known at this point, playing host to the event since 2008. Sedgefield measures 7,127 yards for a par 70.
Despite the lack of par 5s, the winner routinely reaches 20-under par. It is a simple course where accuracy off the tee and approach reign supreme. Couple those two things with a hot putter and you’ll usually find the winner.
Webb Simpson has been the prototype for the skillset we're looking for at this event. He's got a couple of runner-up finishes here, along with a win in 2011. Brandt Snedeker, Henrik Stenson and Si Woo Kim also have wins in recent seasons. All these players are known more for their iron play or putting than they are for their driving ability.
This place has some notable ties with Harbour Town and the RBC Heritage. Simpson, Snedeker and Carl Pettersson have won both. CT Pan has won at Harbour Town and been the runner up here. Kim has won here and lost at Harbour Town in a playoff.
The Favorites
No surprise to see Simpson top the odds board this week at +1000 on DraftKings. He's finished inside the top three here each of the last four years and has that win 10 years ago.
Hideki Matsuyama is next in line at +1400 and appears to have regained some form following up a good showing at the Olympics by reaching the playoffs, which start last week.
Louis Oosthuizen closes out the top part of this range at +1600. Oosthuizen saw his play dip a bit last week, but it was still good enough for a top 20 in the WGC. But regardless of form, I'm not betting him at this price anywhere outside of South Africa.
Patrick Reed leads off a small group +2000s, which also includes Jason Kokrak, Brian Harman and Will Zalatoris. Reed does have a win here and the form has been alright for him to pop up and take this field down. But I just don't like chasing him at these lower numbers.
The Mid-Tier
We'll go with Charl Schwartzel at +5500 on FanDuel. Schwartzel doesn't play here often but was third in 2015, so the course should suit his game. He's also coming off a second-place finish in his last start at the 3M Open, so the game should be in good shape.
I like Jhonattan Vegas at +6000 on DraftKings. Vegas has just been cruising along the past couple of months with four top-20s in five starts, including two runner-up finishes. He's shown this year he can compete for a win when the big names are gone and after a week off following a trip to Japan, he should be well-rested.
Vegas' results haven't been the best here, but he does have an eighth-place finish at Sedgefield mixed in with a bunch of missed cuts. So if the game is right, he can work his way up the leaderboard on this course.
I'll also take a stab at Branden Grace at +8000 on BetMGM. Grace had a mediocre week at the Barracuda, but is in the middle of a decent season. He's got a win this year and a few other top 10s. He's also got a win at Harbour Town. So even if his results here haven't been the best in the past, I'll take a chance at this price that he can pop up this week.
Is this the week for Harold Varner III? Probably not, but we'll try again here at +9000 on PointsBet. Varner's got a couple top 10s here and was 15th at the Barracuda where he finished eighth in GIR for the week. The putter has been the trouble for him many times, but it's been around field average now for a couple of months. If we can line up that iron play from last week with the hot putter on a course where he's had some vibes in the past, then this is the type of field he can beat.
The Longshots
I'll go back to Chez Reavie at 100/1 on DraftKings. He made my card for the Barracuda last week, but after the first round, he wasn't really in the picture much. He's still been stringing good results together, making seven of his last eight cuts. He's also got a ninth place finish here, so he's capable of a solid result here as well.
I'll stick with rehashing my Barracuda plays and go back to Bo Hoag at 150/1. It wasn't a great week for Hoag at Lake Tahoe, but it was another made cut, which means he's made five in a row.
The Wyndham Card
- Charl Schwartzel +5500 (.6 units)
- Jhonattan Vegas +6000 (.55 units)
- Branden Grace +8000 (.41 units)
- Harold Varner +9000 (.37 units)
- Chez Reavie +10000 (.33 units)
- Bo Hoag +15000 (.22 units)
Total Stake: 2.48
