The PGA TOUR heads to TPC Twin Cities this week to play the fourth edition of the 3M Open.
The field leaves much to be desired, which isn't a surprise considering it's the week after a major championship. But that doesn't mean there isn't plenty of value to be had in the betting market.
In the first three renewals of the event at TPC Twin Cities, there have been four first-round leaders or co-leaders. Of the four, three of the first-round leaders have teed off in the afternoon. This would suggest that there may be a bit of an afternoon starter advantage.
When building a first-round leader card, it's always important to keep an eye on the weather. The wind can always change, but as of Tuesday evening, it appears there may be a slight draw bias in favor of the morning starters with the wind projected to be 5-7 MPH less in the morning.
Due to the recent history of afternoon starters at TPC Twin Cities and the potential weather draw, it's probably best to take players from both the morning and afternoon wave.
2022 3M Open First-Round Leader Bets
Troy Merritt +6700 (bet365)
Troy Merritt was the first-round co-leader in 2021, and I believe there's a chance he can do it again in 2022.
I wrote about Merritt's course familiarity in my tournament preview, and it's clearly helped him shoot some low rounds at TPC Twin Cities, including a 64 (-7) last year.
His iron play has been subpar the past few months, so it was certainly a positive sign to see the 36-year-old gain more than seven strokes on approach in his most recent start at the Scottish Open.
Merritt is the type who seems to show up and play well on tracks he's had success at in the past. Therefore, I'm incredibly bullish on him in all formats this week.
Round 1 Tee Time: 7:45 a.m. CDT
Beau Hossler +8100 (bet365)
Beau Hossler is one of the best Bentgrass putters on TOUR, and we've seen in some cases that all it takes for a golfer to claim the first-round lead is to get hot on the greens.
The former Texas Longhorn is an extremely volatile player, and that is exactly what I like to target in the first-round leader market.
He doesn't have his best stuff all that often, but when he does, he tends to hover around the top of the leaderboard early in the tournament.
Round 1 Tee Time: 7:56* a.m. CDT
Brandon Hagy +13000 (DraftKings)
It's been a struggle this season for Brandon Hagy, but he started to show at the Barbasol Championship that he may be starting to find some form. The 31-year-old gained 6.2 strokes on ball striking and finished in 27th place.
In addition to the positive signs in regard to his current form, Hagy is also a perfect fit for TPC Twin Cities. In the past, bombers who can get hot with the putter have had success at the course. Cameron Champ and Matthew Wolff are two of the longest hitters in golf, and both are known for a streaky flatstick.
Hagy isn't near as accomplished as those players, but his skill set is nearly identical. Bentgrass putting has been a strength of his in the past, so shooting a low round on Thursday could be in the cards.
Round 1 Tee Time: 12:22 p.m. CDT
