Scott Piercy shot a 66 on Saturday and holds a four-stroke lead at 18-under par following the third round of the 3M Open. Now, we look forward to Sunday's fourth and final round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the fourth round of the 2022 3M Open. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Rickie Fowler: Round 4 Under 71 Strokes
After successfully hitting this prop on Saturday, we are going back to the well on Rickie Fowler. He will be the first of four repeat plays as I am a big believer in the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" philosophy.
Fowler is T52 at 2-under par after shooting a 69 on Friday. Fowler has gone under this total in two of the first three rounds of this tournament, a trend I expect to continue Sunday.
My main reason for backing Fowler is his accuracy around the course. Fowler is failing to make mistakes as he ranks 13th amongst the remaining field in GIR% and 31st in Driving Accuracy.
Playing a clean game, it is a very safe bet that Fowler stays isolated between the 69-73 range. That being said, I believe this number is worth taking a shot on as Fowler has been playing his best golf of the season recently.
Over his past six tournaments, Fowler has made five cuts with three of those resulting in top-20 finishes. If the putter continues to stay decent in the fourth round, then Fowler should get under this total once again.
I would play this total down to 70.5.
Tony Finau: Round 4 Under 69.5 Strokes
The second golfer we are backing on Sunday is Tony Finau, who is T3 at 13-under par after shooting a 65 on Saturday. Not only has Finau gone under this total in each of the first three rounds, but I expect him to improve once again on Sunday and post an even lower score.
It is weird to say anything is holding Finau back considering his current position on the leaderboard, but his putter is the sole reason he is not higher. Amongst the remaining field, Finau ranks just 72nd in SG: Putting.
However, the rest of Finau's game has essentially lapped the field as he ranks first in SG: Around-the-Green, third in SG: Approach-the-Green, first in SG: Off-the-Tee, first in SG: Tee-to-Green and sixth in GIR%. Finau will get a few more of those putts to drop, so unless the rest of his game falls apart, he should be able to get under this total for the fourth straight round.
I would play this number down to 69.
J.T. Poston: Round 4 Under 70 Strokes
The last golfer we are backing on Sunday is J.T. Poston, who is T11 at 9-under par after shooting a 64 on Saturday. TPC Twin Cities is a course that suits Poston's play well, which is why I believe Sunday will be just as successful as his Saturday was.
This course favors those who have strong short irons and can finish off their putts. On TOUR this season, those are the segments of Poston's game that have flourished the most, as evidenced by his win at the John Deere Classic.
Through the first three rounds, Poston's metrics have him right around where he is currently placed. That being said, Poston has been in good form recently as he has made four of his past seven cuts with three of those resulting in top-10 finishes.
Poston needed strong weekends to lift him into those high finishes, which is what I expect will happen once again at a course that suits his game well.
I would play this number down to 69.5.
Jason Day: Round 4 Over 70.5 Strokes
We are also fading a couple of golfers on Sunday, starting with Jason Day, who is T69 at 1-over par after shooting a 72 on Saturday. Day shot a 70 or higher in each of the first three rounds, a trend I expect to continue on Sunday.
Day's metrics are amongst the worst of the remaining field as he ranks just 61st in SG: Putting, 66th in SG: Around-the-Green, 72nd in SG: Off-the-Tee, 61st in SG: Tee-to-Green and 58th in GIR%. The one area of Day's game that has been good is his approach game, which, to be fair, is one of the most important metrics that indicates success at TPC Twin Cities.
However, considering how weak every other aspect of his game has been through the first three rounds, I am still fading Day.
I would not play this total any higher than 70.5.
Adam Hadwin: Round 4 Over 70 Strokes
The other golfer we are fading Sunday is Adam Hadwin, who is T69 alongside Jason Day at 1-over par after shooting a 71 on Saturday. Hadwin has gone over this total in each of the past two rounds and I believe he will do so once again in the final round.
Like Day, Hadwin's metrics are awful across the board as he ranks just 62nd amongst the remaining field in SG: Putting, 60th in SG: Around-the-Green, 58th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 42nd in SG: Off-the-Tee and 60th in SG: Tee-to-Green. I am not sure there is anywhere to look for optimism in Hadwin's game to improve Sunday.
I would not play this number higher than 70.
