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All we needed was to hit one winner and we would be off to the races. We hit Matthew Fitzpatrick at the U.S. Open, we followed it up with J.T. Poston at the John Deere Classic, and we added Cameron Smith to our list of winners at the Open Championship.
It turns out golf betting is a lot more fun when you are hitting outrights every couple of weeks.
We'll look to keep the momentum going at this week's 3M Open. This certainly feels like a down week in terms of interest, but there's not much going on in the world of sports. The sportsbooks are looking for action and have provided some very enticing numbers for this event.
This event has been held at TPC Twin Cities each of the last three years, so we have some data to work with in terms of determining the type of golfer to look for. The course is a Par 71 that measures over 7,400 yards. In terms of difficulty compared to tour average, all four facets of the game are a bit easier — off the tee, approach, around the green, and putting.
The fairways here are wide (36 yards on average) and easy to hit and the greens here are large (6,500 square feet on average) and easy to hit. The main defense of the course is the water hazards that come into play on 15 of the 18 holes. There will be plenty of penalty strokes this week, but those will be offset by the large number of birdies and eagles.
Favorite Bet: Sahith Theegala +2500
Theegala is a very popular bet this week and his odds continue to diminish. You can currently find this +2500 on BetMGM, but that number might not be around for long.
Theegala has quietly made 13 straight cuts worldwide and posted three top seven finishes during that stretch. He is long off the tee, his irons have really come alive over the last few months, and he has a very good short game. He's had two very close calls at the Phoenix Open and the Travelers Championship, so he'll be better equipped to handle his nerves the next time he's in contention.
Longshot Bet: Beau Hossler +10000
One of the popular strategies this week is to bet golfers that are long off the tee and that are good putters. Hossler isn't accurate, he's not a good iron player, and he struggles around the green, but he can bomb it off the tee and he's one of the best putters in the field. At +10000, he's certainly worth a sprinkle if you are betting a few different golfers this week. Given the longshot nature of the bet, I will also back this up with a top 10 and a top 20 bet.
DFS Sleeper: Tom Hoge $7,100 DraftKings / $9,100 FanDuel
Let's start with the negatives: Hoge has missed six cuts in a row and hasn't looked particularly good in any of those starts.
However, that has led to a major discount in both price and ownership.
I'm willing to bet on talent and Hoge is first in this field in strokes gained approach over the last 18 months. He grew up in North Dakota, which is only a five-hour drive to Minnesota. He spent a lot of time playing golf here and even won two Minnesota State Amateur titles. He's cheap, he will have very little ownership, and he has more upside than those priced around him.
Good luck this week and let's stay hot!
