The first round of the 3M Open wasn't the birdie-fest we've become accustomed to at TPC Twin Cities. Both waves played the course well over par on Thursday with the afternoon tee times getting the short end of that stick and averaging two over on the day.
Scott Pierce and Sungjae Im posted great rounds on Thursday morning as they shot 6-under 65s to take a two-shot edge into Round 2. Both players were sharp tee to green, but also gained more than four strokes on the greens. While they did most of their work on the greens, Tony Finau went out in the afternoon and did his work ball striking, gaining more than six and a half shots on the field in that metric. Finau and Emiliano Grillo posted impressive rounds of 4-under in the more difficult conditions and will get the advantage of trying to keep that momentum rolling on Friday morning.
The morning wave looks to have the edge once again on Friday as the winds will pick up throughout the day. I'll look to grab some value leaning toward that edge as we enter Round 2 at the 3M Open.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball-Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy in Round 2
I was beating the drum on Hank Lebioda in DFS coming into the week and after Round 1, I want some skin in the game on the betting side too. He shot a really strong 3-under round on Thursday afternoon and will tee off before 9 a.m. on Friday. Lebioda ranked fifth in the field with his ball striking to start the week, but despite the strong score, he never really got it going on the greens. Bentgrass greens are his favorite putting surfaces by a good margin and he has now posted three straight rounds in the 60s on this course. That will carry well into Round 2.
Lebioda did most of his damage on the final nine, gaining more than three shots ball striking coming in and gaining on eight of his final nine approach shots. I love that he gets to wake up and keep it going in the morning wave Friday and the betting value is there too. He's listed on FanDuel out at +5000 where most books have him in the low 30s. I'll take that value and run between rounds as I expect he can post another solid number before the weekend.
As it turns out, there's not a ton of value to be found, which is in part due to the lack of strength in this field. Adam Long is a guy I was shopping around for and I guess we'll have to settle for +2800 on him as the best number at BetRivers.
Long has been showing some form of late and continued that play with his ball striking on Thursday. The shocking aspect was that he really struggled on these fairly easy to putt greens and finished around field average. Long ranks 14th on TOUR this season in SG: Putting and if he keeps the ball striking in the top 5 of the field like he did Thursday, there is plenty of reason to think he can go low and get a late time going into Saturday.
Greyson Sigg is a player who many have been waiting to see break out since his promotion to the TOUR in the fall. Unfortunately, he hasn't had things come together like he did in the two wins he posted on the Korn Ferry Tour last year. Sigg has just one top-20 finish this year, but the talent is there and this is the type of field where he can take advantage and post a top finish.
The former Georgia Bulldog posted a 1-under round on Thursday, but did it with one of the best ball-striking rounds of the day. He'll get to wake up and build off of his closing birdie and — as things stand right now — he'll be just five shots back of the lead when he tees off in Round 2. The birdie maker presents plenty of value for me to take a longshot at +10000. He will be a play for me up and down the board on Friday.
3 Golfers to Fade in Round 2
Scott Piercy isn't unfamiliar with the top of the leaderboard as he has been there plenty of times in his career. We haven't seen it lately though as he has just one top-20 finish in 2022. As I noted in the lead in, a big part of his opening round success came on the greens, where he gained more than four shots on the field. I am certain that is unsustainable as he is someone who hasn't finished inside the top 130 on TOUR in SG: Putting since the 2018-2019 season. He has never been known for his flat stick, but rather his ball striking. While I think he may be able to keep the game going tee to green, I feel certain the putter will come crashing back to Earth. With increased winds on Friday, he could have trouble just to stay in the mix before the weekend.
The next player near the top who sticks out for a fade for me in the second round is Brice Garnett. He struggled compared to his peers near the top of the leaderboard with his ball striking and play tee to green on Thursday. He was almost entirely reliant on his flat stick. Garnett gained 3.68 strokes putting in the first round, but less than a shot and a half was gained ball striking. He's been a player this year who has struggled both on approach and on the greens, which is typically a tough combination on TOUR. The fact that we can expect his putter to regress some going into the weekend, but can't rely on better ball striking has me out on Garnett going into Friday.
One of the best early rounds of the day came from another blast from the past in Ricky Barnes. He charged out to 6-under through just 12 holes on Thursday and looked to be in position for the first-round lead. I don't know if he got a quick peek at the leaderboard, but things seemed to fall off from there. He would double the par-4 15th before dropping another shot at the par-5 18th. He really lost the flow of what he had built up, which shouldn't come as a surprise for a player who hasn't been in the mix very often of late. I'll take that slowdown as a sign of things to come going into Friday, especially as he gets the tougher end of the draw in the afternoon.
