Scott Piercy shot a bogey-free 64 on Friday and holds a three-stroke lead at 13-under par following the second round of the 3M Open. Now, we look forward to Saturday's third round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the third round of the 2022 3M Open. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Tony Finau: Round 3 Under 68.5 Strokes
Tony Finau is T4 at 7-under par after shooting a 68 on Friday. Not only has Finau gone under this total in each of the first two rounds, but I expect him to improve over the weekend and post even lower scores.
It is weird to say anything is holding Finau back considering his current position on the leaderboard, but his putter is the sole reason he is not higher. Amongst the remaining field, Finau ranks just 54th in SG: Putting.
However, the rest of Finau's game has been dominant as he ranks fourth in SG: Around-the-Green, 11th in SG: Approach-the-Green, second in SG: Off-the-Tee, second in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 12th in GIR%. Finau will get a few more of those putts to drop, so unless the rest of his game falls apart, he should be able to get under this number for the third straight round.
I would play this total down to 68.
J.T. Poston: Round 3 Under 69.5 Strokes
The second golfer we are backing on Saturday is J.T. Poston, who is T28 at 2-under par after shooting a 69 on Friday. TPC Twin Cities is a course that suits Poston's play well, which is why I believe his weekend will go even better for him.
This course favors those who who have strong short irons and can finish off their putts. On TOUR this season, those are the segments of Poston's game that have flourished the most, as evidenced by his win at the John Deere Classic.
Through the first two rounds, Poston's metrics have him right around where he is currently placed. That being said, Poston has been in good form recently as he has made four of his past seven cuts with three of those resulting in top-10 finishes.
Poston needed strong weekends to lift him into those high finishes, which is what I expect to happen at a course that suits him game well.
I would play this number down to 69.
Rickie Fowler: Round 3 Under 70 Strokes
The last golfer we are backing Saturday is Rickie Fowler, who is T46 at even-par after shooting a 72 on Friday. While Fowler has failed to break this total in either of the first two rounds, I expect him to fare better during the weekend.
The main reason for this thinking has been Fowler's accuracy around the course. Fowler is failing to make mistakes as he ranks 24th in Driving Accuracy and 20th in GIR%, so it is likely he will stay isolated between the 69-73 range for strokes as he is playing a clean game.
That being said, I think this number is worth taking a shot on as Fowler has been playing his best golf of the season recently. Over his past six tournaments, Fowler has made five cuts with three of those resulting in top-20 finishes.
If the putter does better in the third round, then Fowler's score will decrease.
I would not play this total any lower than 70.
Sungjae Im: Round 3 Over 68.5 Strokes
We are also fading a couple of golfers on Saturday, starting with Sungjae Im, who is T4 at 7-under par after shooting a 70 on Friday.
I believe Im will go over this total again on Saturday as he currently faces the exact opposite situation as Tony Finau. Im's metrics are awful — outside of his putting — which makes me think further regression is looming.
Im's putter has been his most dominant club as he ranks third in SG: Putting amongst the remaining field. However, the rest of his bag has been fade-worthy relative to his current position as he ranks just 45th in SG: Around-the-Green, 50th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 32nd in SG: Tee-to-Green and 25th in GIR%.
On Friday, those putts stopped falling and those metrics caught up to him, which I believe will be the case once again Saturday.
I would play this number up to 69.
Jason Day: Round 3 Over 70 Strokes
The other golfer we are fading Saturday is Jason Day, who is T46 at even-par after shooting a 72 on Friday. Day shot a 70 or higher in each of the first two rounds, a trend I expect to continue over the weekend.
Day's metrics are amongst the worst of the remaining field as he ranks 45th in SG: Putting, 65th in SG: Around-the-Green, 64th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 48th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 39th in GIR%. The one area of Day's game that has been good is his approach game, which, to be fair, is one of the most important metrics that indicates success at TPC Twin Cities.
However, considering how weak every other aspect of his game has been through the first two rounds, I am still fading Day.
I would not play this total any higher than 70.
