2022 AT&T Byron Nelson: Updated Odds & 7 Expert Picks for Dustin Johnson, More

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We’re on the road to Southern Hills, and the last stop is just north of Dallas.

With the PGA Championship on the horizon, a strong field is at TPC Craig Ranch this week for the AT&T Byron Nelson. Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite, followed by Justin Thomas and a plethora of proven PGA TOUR winners.

Last year, K.H. Lee won the first edition of this tournament that was played on this course at a staggering 25-under. There were multiple players at 20-under or better, and conditions look ripe for another birdie-fest this week.

Our GolfBet staff has scoured the odds board and found its favorite picks for this week before heading north into Oklahoma for golf’s second major of 2022. Check out their favorite picks below.

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2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Best Bets

Dustin Johnson — Top 5 (+400)

Jason Sobel: This remains one of my favorite current statistics, because it says a lot about us and how we look at these things and how we can shape them to fit our personal narratives: Since his most recent global victory last February, Johnson doesn’t own a single top-five finish in a stroke-play event. (He did reach the semifinals of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, resulting in a solo fourth-place result.) Then again, in 25 stroke-play starts since that win, he does own eight top-10s and 13 top-25s.

What that tells us is that DJ hasn’t seriously contended on the back nine of a Sunday afternoon, but he’s hardly playing poor golf, finishing in that top-25 range in half of his appearances.

With all of that in mind, I’ll back Johnson to break one of those streaks, finally posting a top-five finish this week. While it’s not very relevant, as he hasn’t played this tourney in a half-decade and hasn’t competed on this course, Johnson does own seven consecutive top-20s at this one, though only one top-five, way back in 2009.

On a track where he can bash it and make birdies in bunches, this should be the perfect formula for getting back into serious contention. I don’t mind an outright play on DJ, but if we’re talking best bets, I’ll stick with a top-five in his first post-nuptials start.

Marc Leishman +6600

Matt Vincenzi: In the past, I’ve written about golfers who offer some tremendous value on the betting board due to what I call a “missed cut discount.” Marc Leishman fits that description perfectly this week.

Although Leishman missed the cut at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, I didn’t see any major cause for concern. Despite missing the cut, Leishman gained 3.1 strokes on approach in two rounds. He bladed a bunker shot into the water which is most definitely an anomaly but cost him three strokes and ultimately, the cut.

Leishman now heads to a course that should be a much better fit for him than TPC Potomac was. When the 38-year-old gets into trouble, it usually is due to an errant driver. Missing the fairway at TPC Potomac was incredibly penal, and that won’t be the case at TPC Craig Ranch. It also will be much harder to miss the fairways considering they are some of the widest on TOUR.

Throughout his career, the Aussie has played some of his best golf in the state of Texas. He was the runner up at this event (AT&T Byron Nelson at Trinity Forest) back in 2018, and finished 21st at this course last season. Additionally, back in 2008, Leishman won a Nationwide Tour event (WNB Golf Classic) by 11 strokes which took place in Midland. Something about Texas golf undoubtedly resonates with him.

Leishman is a golfer I love going to on outright bets because of the win equity he offers. He has six PGA TOUR wins, so I am confident he will be able to convert a good performance into a win if given the opportunity. I expect the winning score to eclipse 20-under this week, and three of Leishman’s six TOUR victories have come at that score or better. The best number for the Aussie is on BetMGM, as of Tuesday night.

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Davis Riley +6500

Joshua Perry: I obviously bet him pretty much every week, but he's worthy of a write up this time. He's finished in the top five in three of his last five starts and has ties to the Dallas area, so it should be a comfortable event. The ball striking hasn't always been great in those top finishes, but the putter is hot right now, and that's what whoever wins this thing will need.

Keith Mitchell +8000

Derek Farnsworth: I’m having a hard time not backing up the Brinks Truck and placing every wager possible on Mitchell this week. My plan is to bet him outright and then sprinkle in some top 10, top 20, and even make the cut bets.

TPC Craig Ranch is a driver-heavy golf course with generous fairways. It features four par fives and measures nearly 7,500 yards. It certainly sets up well for good drivers of the ball and no golfer in the field is better off the tee than Mitchell.

While I wouldn’t call him an elite iron player, he is certainly trending upward with his approach game. Over the last 18 months, he’s 104th in this field on approach. Over the last 10 months, he’s 87th. In 2022, he’s 46th. He has excellent proximity numbers from 200+ yards and you will see a lot of approach shots hit from that distance this week. He has finished T13 or better in six of his last nine starts on TOUR and finished T26 at this event last year.

The best number on Mitchell is at BetMGM as of Tuesday.

Adam Hadwin — Top 30 (+190)

Rob Bolton: My original selection — Brooks Koepka to miss the cut (+180) — bailed on Wednesday. Phooey.

None of the other miss-the-cut values are as tasty, so I’m pivoting to the other sensible angle in a shootout — the middle-range, prop finish.

Hadwin has connected four straight top 30s in individual competition upon arrival, three of which for top 10s. He’s hung up seven top 30s in his last nine opportunities, so the form is glowing. The Canuck’s putting remains top-shelf, but it also continues to overshadow his approach game, which just might be better. Truth.

In terms of the value of this kickback, BetMGM and DraftKings have him on their respective boards at +200 and +210 for a top-20, and that’s not enough to feel the difference while forfeiting real estate on the leaderboard. He’s +240 for a top-20 at FanDuel, but I learned early on not to lean too hard on that bubble, and especially in a shootout.

Jhonattan Vegas — Top 10 (+500)

Landon Silinsky: Vegas is having himself a great season and has really taken a leap to become one of the more consistent players on TOUR. He's finished inside the top 27 in each of his past four starts and is coming off a T15 at the Wells Fargo, where he led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

On the season, Vegas ranks 21st in par-5 scoring and ranks sixth in this field in Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking over his past 48 rounds. He always plays well in the Lone Star State, having played his college golf at the University of Texas. Vegas finished T9 here a year ago and at +500 I will take my chances he can post a repeat performance this week.

Joaquin Niemann +3500

Bryan Berryman: With fairly straight forward tee shots and little to no trouble surrounding the greens; TPC Craig Ranch should yield birdies in bunches this week. Last year the winning score was 25-under par, and I’m expecting a similar result this year.

I’m targeting elite ball-strikers that have a high birdie or better percentage for my card this week, and Niemann fits the bill.

Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and third in birdie-or-better percentage in this field. The bentgrass greens of TPC Craig Ranch will also work in Niemann’s favor this week, as it is the only surface he has gained strokes putting on over his 103 starts on tour.

Since turning professional in 2018, he’s proven to be a world class ball-striker who can really fill it up when he gets going. I like his chances of being at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday evening.

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