Byron Nelson 2022 Odds: Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, 4 More Course-Fit Picks

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As anticipation mounts for the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills, we make one final pit stop at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, to play the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson.

Last year was the first time the tournament was held at TPC Craig Ranch. The prior two editions of the AT&T Byron Nelson were played at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.

TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,468-yard par-72 that features bentgrass greens.  The event historically plays relatively easy, and that certainly didn't change last year with the new course. K.H. Lee won the event by shooting 25-under.

The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th set up like the stadium hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par 4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.

There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and it's a very strong collection of players. Some notable names in the field are Dustin Johnson, Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Will Zalatoris, Adam Scott, Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama.

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Past Winners at AT&T Byron Nelson

• 2021: K.H. Lee (-25) (TPC Craig Ranch)
• 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
• 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
• 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
• 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
• 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)

5 Key Stats For TPC Craig Ranch

Let's take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.

Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, K.H. Lee was second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.

Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Will Zalatoris (+27.5) (+2500)
2. Justin Thomas  (23.4) (+1400)
3. Adam Hadwin (+20.0) (+5000)
4. Hideki Matsuyama (+19.9) (+2500)
5. Jordan Spieth (+17.3) (+1800)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.

Distance will certainly be helpful, and there doesn't appear to be too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Keith Mitchell (+21.4) (+8000)
2. Will Zalatoris (+15.3) (+2500)
3. Cameron Champ (+14.7) (+5000)
4. Si Woo Kim (+14.4) (+6000)
5. Tom Hoge (+14.4) (+10000)

3. Birdie or Better

There aren't many hazards on the course, and all of the par 5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.

Birdie or Better Over Past 24 Rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+35.8) (+1000)
2. Joaquin Niemann (+21.8) (+2200)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (+21.2) (+2500
4. Adam Hadwin (+19.0) (+5000)
5. Davis Riley (+17.3)(+4500)

4. Par 3: 200+

Three of the four par 3s at TPC Craig Ranch measure over 200 yards (No. 4: 219, No. 7: 232 and No. 15: 216).

This week, I will be looking for golfers who can play these difficult par-3s effectively and who have good proximity statistics on similar length holes.

Par 3: 200+ Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Tom Hoge (+7.2) (+10000)
2. Talor Gooch (+7.1) (+4500)
3. Brian Stuard (+7.1) (+22500)
4. C.T. Pan (+5.5) (+7500)
5. Adam Hadwin (+4.8) (+5000)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer bentgrass to other surfaces.

Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Jason Kokrak (+22.5) (+4500)
2. Brandt Snedeker (+21.6) (+20000)
3. Alex Noren (+20.4) (+5500)
4. Beau Hossler (+20.4) (+20000)
5. Dustin Johnson (+19.3) (+2200)

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The AT&T Byron Nelson Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (25%), Birdie or Better (22%), Par-3: 200+ (12%), and SG: Putting Bentgrass (14%).

1. Adam Hadwin (+5000)
2. Justin Thomas (+1400)
3. Will Zalatoris (+2500)
4. Joaquin Niemann (+2200)
5. Keith Mitchell (+8000)
6. Tom Hoge (+10000)
7. Jordan Spieth (+1800)
8. Alex Noren (+5000)
9. Dustin Johnson (+2200)
10. Aaron Wise (+4000)

2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Open Best Bets

Jordan Spieth +2200 (BetMGM)

When I took my first glance at the odds this week, I thought there may have been a mistake. Coming off of a win and a stretch that saw him play great golf, I fully anticipated Jordan Spieth's outright odds this week to have a "1" in front of them.

Spieth's win at the RBC Heritage was impressive, but I was more impressed with the way he got it done. In the past, we've seen him contend by gaining strokes putting and making improbable birdies throughout the week. That wasn't the case at Harbour Town.

The 28-year-old gained 13.3 strokes from tee to green, which led the field by a whopping 3.0 stroke margin. He's gained strokes on approach in his past six measured events and has gained strokes off the tee in five of his past six measured events. Shockingly, Spieth has had a difficult time putting this season. If he can regain form with the putter, he will be incredibly difficult to beat.

Throughout the past few seasons, the former Texas Longhorn has been incredible in his home state. Three of his past four starts in the state have resulted in a top-10 finish, including a win at last year's Valero Texas Open.

I typically don't like betting on golfers to win in back-to-back starts, but if there is anyone who can do it, it's Spieth. He's won in consecutive starts twice already in his career and tends to get scorching hot once he starts rounding into form.

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Will Zalatoris +2200 (BetMGM)

Will Zalatoris is overdue for his first PGA TOUR victory and there's plenty of reason to believe that TPC Craig Ranch is the perfect spot for him to finally get over the hump.

In Zalatoris' past five starts, he's gaining an average of 4.3 strokes on approach and 6.9 strokes for tee to green. His ball striking has been nothing short of exquisite and returning to a course that he is incredibly familiar with should do nothing to deter that this week.

“So I played TPC Craig Ranch a bunch going back, I think, to when I was actually 12 years old," Zalatoris said before last year's Byron Nelson. "I played in the Ewing Junior Tour regular season championship, played in a foursome with Scottie Scheffler, and I’ve got a lot of great memories here. So I guess I’ve been competing here basically half my life, so really looking forward to, obviously, competing in front of some friends and family this week."

Last year at the Byron Nelson, Zalatoris led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach by gaining 9.5 strokes on the field. His Achilles heel (putting) was his undoing that week, as it typically is. He lost a paltry 4.3 strokes putting and was the only top-20 finisher to lose strokes putting. If he can manage to putt to field average this week, look out!

Marc Leishman +7000 (PointsBet)

In the past, I’ve written about golfers who offer some tremendous value on the betting board due to what I call a “missed cut discount.” Marc Leishman fits that description perfectly this week.

Although Leishman missed the cut at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, I didn’t see any major cause for concern. Despite missing the cut, Leishman gained 3.1 strokes on approach in two rounds. He bladed a bunker shot into the water which is most definitely an anomaly but cost him three strokes and ultimately, the cut. 

Leishman now heads to a course that should be a much better fit for him than TPC Potomac was. When the 38-year-old gets into trouble, it usually is due to an errant driver. Missing the fairway at TPC Potomac was incredibly penal, and that won’t be the case at TPC Craig Ranch. It also will be much harder to miss the fairways considering they are some of the widest on TOUR. 

Throughout his career, the Aussie has played some of his best golf in the state of Texas. He was the runner up at this event (AT&T Byron Nelson at Trinity Forest) back in 2018, and finished 21st at this course last season. Additionally, back in 2008, Leishman won a Nationwide Tour event (WNB Golf Classic) by 11 strokes which took place in Midland. Something about Texas golf undoubtedly resonates with him. 

Leishman is a golfer I love going to on outright bets because of the win equity he offers. He has six PGA TOUR wins, so I am confident he will be able to convert a good performance into a win if given the opportunity. I expect the winning score to eclipse 20-under this week, and three of Leishman’s six TOUR victories have come at that score or better. 

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Matthew Wolff +13000 (DraftKings)

After a nightmare start to his 2022 campaign, Matthew Wolff finally showed some signs of life last week at TPC Potomac. The 23-year-old gained 4.0 strokes from tee to green and finished in 25th, which was his best finish since November. He finished 11th that week at the Houston Open, so returning to Texas may bring some positive vibes to go along with the confidence he gained last week. 

I’ve always viewed Wolff as a player who was capable of having extreme “spike weeks” where he can find himself in contention. It’s unclear whether Wolff is truly trending back towards the lofty expectations he once had or if it was an outlier. At triple-digit odds, it’s worth the price to find out. 

Dylan Frittelli +13000 (DraftKings)

I was high on Frittelli the last time the PGA TOUR made a stop in Texas, and he had a great week, finishing eighth at the Valero Texas Open. 

The former Texas Longhorn seems to find his groove in the state of Texas and also finished 19th at last year’s Houston Open. A low-scoring tournament should be a good fit for him since he's typically a prolific birdie maker. 

The 31-year-old finished 46th last week at the Wells Fargo Championship but he played better statistically than his result shows. He gained 5.1 strokes from tee to green but really struggled with the putter, losing 4.0 strokes to the field. Returning to Texas should be a positive change for his prospects with the flat stick as he gained 3.9 strokes putting in his showing at the Valero Texas Open.

Brandon Wu +20000 (PointsBet)

Brandon Wu is a young player that I think is going to break on the PGA TOUR scene in a big way in the coming years. The 25-year-old won the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in 2020, beating an impressive mix of current TOUR players. He’s come on strong lately with finishes of third, 33rd, 28th, and second before a missed cut last week at Wells Fargo. The missed cut doesn’t bother me much considering I didn’t love the course fit for him. 

Wu cashed a top ten bet for us in Mexico and I think similar to Vidanta Vallarta, TPC Craig Ranch is a course that has a much more favorable setup for the Stanford product. Since he’s started playing on TOUR, the tournaments he’s played best at are all course setups that are on the easier side. He showed us that he is more than capable of keeping up in a “birdie fest” in his Sunday round in Mexico where he fired a scorching hot 63 to grab a share of second place. 

This is a talent play on Wu. A win will come for him at some point in the next few seasons so starting to invest in him consistently at a triple-digit number should pay off.

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