With the Wells Fargo Championship now in the rear-view mirror, we move on to the AT&T Byron Nelson. This tournament moved to TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, which will host this year's tournament as well.
The 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson was the first PGA TOUR event ever hosted at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, an event that K.H. Lee won with an impressive 25-under par. TPC Craig Ranch is a par-72, 7,468-yard track which is known for Rowlett Creek crossing the course 14 times.
Looking at K.H. Lee's victory in 2021, there are three key indicators of success at TPC Craig Ranch: SG: Approach the Green, SG: Putting, and SG: Tee to Green. Among the field, Lee ranked second, ninth, and second in those three categories, respectively.
We will use those metrics, along with recent form, to help narrow down our bets for this tournament.
Below, I give out my five Round 1 PrizePicks flex plays for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship. For those unfamiliar with PrizePicks flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs/unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout, and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Scottie Scheffler: Round 1 Under 68.5 Strokes
The outright favorite to win this tournament, Scottie Scheffler, enters this tournament as the top ranked golfer in the world. This ranking is well deserved as he has won four of the last seven tournaments he has played in, including The Masters.
Scheffler should also find success at TPC Craig Ranch as he currently ranks 27th on TOUR in SG Approach the Green, 20th in SG Putting, and 30th in SG: Tee to Green. Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Scheffler shot a 67 in the first round, and he is a much better golfer now than he was then.
I would play this number down to 67.5.
Sam Burns: Round 1 Under 69 Strokes
Sam Burns, who is ranked 10th in the World Golf Rankings, will look to continue his outstanding play this season. Over his last five tournaments, Burns has three top-10 finishes, including his win at the Valspar Championship.
Burns tore up TPC Craig Ranch last year with a second place finish, shooting a 69 or better in three of the four rounds. This season, Burns ranks 11th on TOUR in SG: Approach the Green, 34th in SG: Putting, and 18th in SG: Tee to Green.
I would not play this total at anything lower than 69.
Brooks Koepka: Round 1 Over 69 Strokes
A fan favorite, we are getting great value in Koepka as this number is set too low due to his name. While yes, Koepka is one of the world's best, his recent play and metrics have lagged behind what we expect from him.
This season, Koepka ranks just 110th on TOUR in SG: Approach the Green, 76th in SG: Putting, and 108th in SG: Tee to Green. TPC Craig Ranch is not a course that suits Koepka's style of play as he missed the cut last year after shooting a 70 or higher in each of the first two rounds.
I would play this number up to 69.5.
Marc Leishman: Round 1 Under 69.5 Strokes
Currently ranked 42nd in the FedEx Cup Rankings, Leishman has had an impressive season. Leishman should continue his success at TPC Craig Ranch as he ranks 40th on TOUR in SG: Approach the Green, 22nd in SG: Putting, and 53rd in SG: Tee to Green.
This is a great number to play the under on as Leishman has gone under this total in the first round of three of his last four stroke-play tournaments. Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Leishman shot a 69 or lower in three of the four rounds.
I would not play this total at anything lower than 69.5.
Ian Poulter: Round 1 Over 69.5 Strokes
TPC Craig Ranch does not fit Poulter's style well as he ranks just 104th on TOUR in SG: Approach the Green, 63rd in SG: Putting, and 101st in SG: Tee to Green. Over his last six stroke-play tournaments, Poulter has shot a 71 or higher in the first round in four of those outings.
Poulter did not play at this tournament last season, so it could take him some extra time to adjust to the way it plays. I would not play this total at anything higher than 69.5.
