AT&T Byron Nelson 2022 Expert Picks: Tommy Fleetwood, 4 More Outright Bets

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Not all seconds are created equal. Matthew Fitzpatrick came in runner up for us on Sunday, but it never felt like he was in contention at any point during the week.

Instead, Max Homa came out on top for the second time this season and third time in 15 months. That win rate will draw some attention for the majors, and he's still available at a decent price, coming in at 100-1 in a few spots for the PGA Championship and U.S. Open.

Homa is probably worth a look at those numbers, given the quality of his previous wins. Victories at Quail Hollow and Riviera speak for themselves in terms of major talent, and Francesco Molinari used TPC Potomac as a catapult to his Open Championship a few months later.

Now we look at the final tuneup for the PGA Championship with the AT&T Byron Nelson this week.

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The Course

TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,468-yard par-72 on the outskirts of the Dallas metro area. This is the second time the course has played host to the event. Last year, K.H. Lee put together the best week with the irons of his career, gaining over eight shots to beat Sam Burns by three strokes.

It was really easy by PGA TOUR standards with 25-under par coming in as the winning number. I'd imagine we'll get at least to 20-under par again unless the weather plays a role.

Outside of that, we don’t have much to go off of besides two old Korn Ferry events. The winners won’t ring a bell to most either with Matt Bettencourt taking the 2008 title and Justin Bolli coming out on top in 2012.

Bettencourt and Bolli were both above-average iron players and had good short games, so that’s where I’ll be looking this week. Lee checked those two boxes last year, gaining over four strokes with the putter to go with that career-best approach week.

The Favorites

Scottie Scheffler opens at the top of the board coming in at around +1000. He's got three wins in his last five starts and has the Texas ties going in his favor this week.

Justin Thomas is the only one who's close this week in the odds, opening at +1200. He's been solid for a while with six top 10s in his last 10 starts, but he hasn't really been in contention much during those weeks.

After that, we have Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama all available in the +2000s range. Burns was the aforementioned runner-up a year ago, while Spieth was ninth.

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The Mid-Tier

I'll open up this range with Davis Riley at +6500. I obviously bet him pretty much every week, but he's worthy of a write up this time. He's finished in the top five in three of his last five starts and has ties to the Dallas area, so it should be a comfortable event. The ball striking hasn't always been great in those top finishes, but the putter is hot right now, and that's what whoever wins this thing will need.

I'm also going with Jhonattan Vegas at +5500 on PointsBet. Vegas was a disaster off the tee last week, losing five strokes, but he still finished 15th thanks to the best approach week of his career. If the irons are anywhere close to that this week, he should contend on a course where he finished ninth last year.

Next, I'm going to Tommy Fleetwood at +6500 on FanDuel. I really wasn't planning on playing Fleetwood this week, but I'll bite in this field. Also, he's at 40-1 or lower at most other books.

Prior to missing the cut at the Zurich Classic, Fleetwood didn't have a stroke-play finish worse than 22nd in his previous five starts. The iron play has been a concern much of the past year both on the PGA TOUR and in Europe, but he's gained ground there in three straight events now. The short game is probably as good as ever at the moment and has really carried him the past few months while his usual steady ball striking went awry.

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The Longshots

In this range, I'm going to Patrick Rodgers at 200-1 on PointsBet. Rodgers was 10th two weeks ago in Mexico and 21st in New Orleans with Brandon Wu. Rodgers has gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven starts. He's struggled with the putter this year, which has normally been a strength for him, but he did seem to get things figured out in Mexico to some extent where he gained five strokes on the greens.

We'll also go to Rodgers' Zurich Classic partner Brandon Wu, who's also 200-1 on PointsBet. Wu was second in Mexico and third in Puerto Rico, so he's worked his way into contention this season.  After struggling much of the season, he's made five straight cuts as well prior to missing the weekend at the Wells Fargo. So he's been able to string together some consistency for a couple months now.

With this card, we'll have room for a live add or two, which is how we hit Lee last year when he was +6600 and trailing Spieth by two after a strong first round.

The Byron Nelson Card

• Jhonattan Vegas +5500 (.6 units)
• Davis Riley +6500 (.5 units)
• Tommy Fleetwood +6500 (.5 units)
• Brandon Wu +20000 (.17 units)
• Patrick Rodgers +20000 (.17 units)

Total Stake: 2.04 units

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