Going into Saturday at Pebble Beach, it was hard to see how Seamus Power could falter as he headed to Monterey Peninsula with a five-shot lead. However, he mentioned in a post-round interview that this course was the least-fitting to his game of the three, and that certainly played out during his round.
The Irishman struggled throughout Saturday and ultimately shot a two-over 73 to lose the lead and fall to a tie for fourth heading into the final round.
Three players took advantage of the leader's struggles as Beau Hossler, Tom Hoge and Andrew Putnam climbed to the top of the leaderboard. They will take a one-shot lead into Sunday, but there are some big names lurking, including Patrick Cantlay, who will play with Hoge in the penultimate pairing. Jordan Spieth is also at 14-under for the week and will be looking to capture his second win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
There are 16 players within five shots of the lead going into the final round, and with conditions expected to be benign once again, it could be anyone's tournament. We have seen a number of low rounds with the perfect conditions this week, and it wouldn't be surprising to see someone go really low to post a number for the leaders to chase down.
We head into Sunday with just one round of strokes gained data for all of the players during whichever day the teed it up at Pebble this week. It's not much to lean on, so I'll continue to focus on my best bets as we close out the final multi-course event of the season.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds
Now, that I've taken some time to dissect everything further, I don't have a bet at the top of the board. I'll give you my quick rundown of those players, but all of them are at odds that just don't present enough value for a play before the round.
I expect Hossler to struggle; he really was all putter on Saturday, and we can't rely on that during the pressure of the final group. His playing partner, Putnam, certainly has the game and consistency to win, but he's a "pass" at such short +700 odds. The same could be said for Hoge — and I would even go as far to say he is who I predict to win — but I just don't think you can bet him at +500.
Then we get into the bigger names.
Cantlay has some real Jon Rahm vibes from last week as Cantlay is really, by his standards, having a pretty terrible week with his game. He ranks 100th in the field in greens-in-regulation, but there he is just one shot back. There just isn't enough there at +300, so I'll take my chances that he continues to "struggle."
Spieth had his game for the first time in a long time on Saturday as he gained 5.31 shots on approach. He has shown us this before, ironically all on Saturdays in the last year, but his ability to stay hot into Sunday hasn't always been there. He is also listed around +300 and just doesn't have the value.
I start to gain a little interest with Joel Dahmen and Séamus Power at double-digit odds — I have no problem with anyone that wants to go with either.
Dahmen gets a tough draw being paired with Spieth, and all of the attention that comes with from the crowds. Dahmen has been fantastic tee to green this week and certainly could find another coastal win Sunday. Power, on the other hand, has to be reeling from his Saturday round. And we aren't quite getting enough juice for the squeeze to take the chance he comes back strong.
The last one I'll cover here is Jason Day.
I really wanted to stick to my play on Day from earlier in the week, but his game has slowly faded. He has gradually regressed with his irons in each round, and that's enough to have me concerned for a guy who will likely need to shoot 7-under or better to have a chance.
There may be some live-betting opportunities as we get a feel for the round on Sunday, and that may be where I take some of my chances on the guys at the top. For now, though, I am looking at longshots to make a move with my best bets going into the final round.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks
Denny McCarthy (+8000) at DraftKings
If I'm making another bet before the round, it's going to be with a longshot who could get hot on the greens and go low on Sunday, like McCarthy.
I have gone to McCarthy several times this year, and over 18 holes, he certainly has the short game to make a bunch of putts and post a low round from four shots back.
He seemed to find some of his ball striking game over on Monterey Peninsula on Saturday as he missed just one fairway and, more importantly, only three greens during his round. It was the second day in a row that he was sharp off the tee, but he struggled finding his approach game on Friday.
I'll look for him to build off his positive momentum from Round 3 and see if he can put himself in the mix to win on Sunday, but he will also be a big target for me when top-five odds are posted ahead of the round.
Dylan Frittelli (+25000) at DraftKings
This is a true longshot, but if you looked back last week, eventual winner Luke List was +20000 to start the final round from six back at the Farmers.
So you're saying there's a chance!? I'm betting on it. And Frittelli is where I'll take my shot.
He played some great golf in his round at Pebble Beach on Saturday and really left some shots out there. The former Texas Longhorn fired a 4-under 68 as he climbed into the Top 10 and will start Sunday five shots back.
The part of his game that has me intrigued for his chances is with his ball striking, where he gained more than three shots on the field. He did most of that work on approach, where he gained 2.96 shots with his irons. Frittelli lost strokes on only four approaches on Saturday, and really didn't take advantage of how good he was hitting it into the greens during his opening nine. He lost 1.49 strokes with his putter during that stretch but actually gained .52 with the flat stick over his final nine.
I am hopeful that he can keep the ball striking going, and that he found some comfort on these greens to carry into Sunday. It certainly doesn't cost us much to take a shot in the outright market, but he too will be a top-five target of mine when odds are released.
