Seamus Power came into Friday off of an impressive 8-under 64 on Spyglass Hill in the opening round and matched it on Pebble Beach in the second round. He was the story of Day 2 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am as the Irishman grabbed ahold of the tournament and will carry a five-shot lead into the weekend.
Power's round was impressive for sure, but it was surprising to see Pebble Beach playing as the easiest course of the rotation through two rounds. The leader will now head to what is historically the easiest of the three at Monterey Peninsula, before the 54-hole cut.
He is being chased by three players at 11-under for the week, in Tom Hoge, Andrew Putnam and Adam Svensson. Just one shot back of them is the top player in the field, Patrick Cantlay, who lingers six shots back as he turns to Pebble Beach for his Saturday and likely Sunday closing rounds.
While there is a large gap between the leader and the rest of the pack, these courses have proven to yield low scores throughout the week. I expect we will see someone cut into the lead before the final round, but my feeling is that it may be Cantlay who really just isn't bet-able at his current odds from six shots back. I'll focus on alternate markets and placing positions tonight, as I tread lightly with the hopes we can get a better feel for things going into Sunday.
Best Bets
Patrick Cantlay Top American +150 (BetMGM)
I don't usually get involved in alternate markets, but this one stood out to me tonight. Right now, the best odds I can find for Cantlay to win the tournament is +380, which is quite a short number for a guy six shots back of the lead going into Saturday.
Instead, I look to him at plus money to be Top American, which eliminates the leader Power, as well as a few other key contenders in Svensson, Schwab and Jason Day. I was leaning heavily to betting Cantlay at the start of the week, and really he hasn't disappointed, Seamus Power has just simply been great. The more I think about this, I like this as a way to get some exposure to Cantlay at plus money without worrying about needing any help from the guy out front.
Joel Dahmen Top 5 +800 (BetMGM)
I started to write up Dahmen at +10000, but the reality hit me that he probably should be longer than that. He's eight shots back of the lead with 13 players ahead of him and is headed to the toughest of the three courses. The good news is that Dahmen has played Spyglass well over the years, and I think he can still move up the board some on Saturday.
Dahmen has been the second-best player in the field in hitting both fairways and greens through 36 holes this week. He's only missed three fairways and four greens through the first two rounds, which is a great recipe for success on these courses. He is one of those players that either has his game or things can get ugly in a hurry, and this is clearly one of the good weeks for the man that dons a bucket hat. Dahmen is someone I look to continue to climb the leaderboard this weekend, and even if it's a longshot to catch the lead, he certainly looks to be positioned for a high finish.
