Adam Scott shot a 69 on Friday and holds a one-stroke lead (8-under) following the second round of the BMW Championship.
Now we look forward to Saturday's third round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the third round of the 2022 BMW Championship. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 10x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout, and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
BMW Championship Round 3 PrizePicks Plays
Rory McIlroy: Round 3 Under 68 Strokes
Entering the third round, Rory McIlroy is T6 at 6-under par after shooting a 68 on Friday. In fact, McIlroy has shot a 68 in each of the first two rounds, and we should only expect him to improve over the weekend.
McIlroy's metrics are excellent through the first two rounds of this tournament, ranking eighth in the field in SG: Around-the-Green, third in SG: Off-the-Tee and sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green.
The only club holding Rory back is his putter, evidenced by the fact that he ranks just 37th in SG: Putting.
Many of you may be having flashbacks to that fourth round of the Open Championship, where McIlroy's putter was utterly disappointing. But otherwise, he has been consistently one of the best putters on TOUR this season, ranking 11th in SG: Putting.
Those putts will start to fall on Saturday, and when they do, McIlroy's score will improve due to how sharp the rest of his game has been.
I would not play this total lower than 68.
Will Zalatoris: Round 3 Under 68.5 Strokes
Another golfer we are backing on Saturday is Will Zalatoris. Entering the third round, Zalatoris is T22 at 3-under par after shooting a 69 on Friday.
While Zalatoris has failed to break this total in each of the first two rounds, we should expect some positive regression over the weekend. Like McIlroy, Zalatoris' putting is the only thing holding him back, as he ranks 47th in the field in SG: Putting.
However, the rest of his game has been strong, as he ranks 19th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 20th in SG: Tee-to-Green.
While many said that Zalatoris was already in the conversation, his win at the FedEx St. Jude Championship cemented himself into the "world's best golfer" debate.
We should expect positive regression across the board for Zalatoris, who ranks 11th on TOUR this season in SG: Off-the-Tee, first in SG: Approach the Green and second in SG: Tee-to-Green.
I would not play this number lower than 68.5.
Sungjae Im: Round 3 Over 69 Strokes
We are fading one golfer on Saturday, Sungjae Im. Entering the third round, Im is T22 at 3-under par after shooting a 69 on Friday.
Failing to break this total in either of the first two rounds, we should expect some further regression from Im over the weekend.
So far through this tournament, Im's putting success has kept him afloat, which is not a pathway to victory when the rest of your game is struggling.
In the field, Im ranks 35th in SG: Around-the-Green, 30th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 38th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 35th in SG: Tee-to-Green.
There is no denying that Im has been playing a dominant stretch of golf entering this tournament. However, regression is due to hit a guy whose metrics are not as strong as his results have been.
I would play this total up to 69.5.
Matt Fitzpatrick: Round 3 Over 7.5 Fairways Hit
Entering Saturday, Matt Fitzpatrick is T48 at even-par after shooting a 73 in the second round. Fitzpatrick has hit eight fairways in each of the first two rounds, a trend I expect to continue on Saturday.
Outside of his putter, Fitzpatrick's driver has been his best club in this tournament. Amongst the field, Fitzpatrick ranks 18th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 35th in Driving Accuracy.
We should not expect regression in these areas of Fitzpatrick's game. On TOUR this season, he ranks seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee and 47th in Driving Accuracy.
To give us another advantage on this prop, Fitzpatrick is teeing off in the morning. Through the first two rounds, the morning wave has done better than the afternoon.
I would play this number up to eight.
Max Homa: Round 3 Over 7 Fairways Hit
Another golfer we are backing off the tee box in the third round is Max Homa. Entering Saturday, Homa is T40 at 1-under par after shooting a 69 on Friday.
Going over this total in each of the first two rounds, we should expect Homa to keep finding fairways over the weekend. Amongst the field, Homa ranks 15th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 22nd in Driving Accuracy.
We should not expect regression in these areas of Homa's game. On TOUR this season, he ranks 29th in SG: Off-the-Tee. Like Fitzpatrick, Homa is teeing off with the morning wave.
I would play his total up to 7.5.
