Patrick Cantlay shot a 65 on Saturday and holds a one-stroke lead (12-under) following the third round of the BMW Championship.
Let's look forward to Sunday's fourth and final round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the fourth round of the BMW Championship. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
BMW Championship Round 4 PrizePicks Plays
Matt Fitzpatrick: Round 4 Over 7.5 Fairways Hit
After successfully hitting on this prop in the third round, we are going back to the well. Fitzpatrick is T47 (even par) after shooting a 71 on Saturday.
Fitzpatrick has hit eight or more fairways in each of the first three rounds, a trend I expect to continue on Sunday. Outside of his putter, Fitzpatrick's driver has been his best club this week. Amongst the field, Fitzpatrick ranks 19th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 27th in Driving Accuracy.
We should not expect regression in these areas of his game. On TOUR this season, Fitzpatrick ranks seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee and 47th in Driving Accuracy.
To give us another advantage on this prop, he is teeing off in the morning. Through the first three rounds, the morning wave has performed better than the afternoon.
I would play this total up to 8.
Max Homa: Round 4 Over 7 Fairways Hit
This is another prop we are going back to after hitting it on Saturday. Homa is T26 at 4-under par after shooting a 68 in the third round.
After hitting eight or more fairways in each of the first three rounds, we should expect Homa to finish strong on Sunday. Amongst the field, Homa ranks 13th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 19th in Driving Accuracy.
On TOUR this season he ranks 29th in SG: Off-the-Tee.
I would play this number up to 7.5.
Patrick Cantlay: Round 4 Under 68 Strokes
In the most chalky play of this article, we are backing the guy in first place. Not only do I think Cantlay will shoot a 68 or lower for the fourth straight round, but I think he will likely shoot closer to the 65 he shot on Saturday.
Improved results were expected for Cantlay on Saturday and I think we will see a similar performance in the final round. Cantlay's overall performance has been strong, but his putter has been holding him back.
Entering Sunday, Cantlay ranks just 34th amongst the field in SG: Putting. However, he also ranks fifth in SG: Approach-the-Green, second in SG: Off-the-Tee and first in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Even when he shot a 65 on Saturday, his putter cost him a couple of strokes (granted, he did hole out for an eagle on 14). Those putts will start to fall for Cantlay, and when they do, he should be able to run away in this event.
I would not play this total lower than 68.
Justin Thomas: Round 4 Over 68.5 Strokes
We are also fading a couple of golfers on Sunday, starting with Thomas. Entering the fourth round, Thomas is T51 at 1-over par after shooting a 75 on Saturday.
At this point of the tournament, Thomas seemingly just wants to head home. He's shot a 73 or higher in each of the past two rounds and can't generate any positive momentum.
We are getting some name recognition in this number, especially after watching Thomas on the back nine Saturday. In fact, Thomas has birdied on just two of the past 40 holes he's played!
Amongst the field, Thomas ranks 50th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 40th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 37th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Will he shoot better than a 73 on Sunday? I hope so. Will he shoot five strokes better? Doubtful.
I would play this number up to 69.
Tyrrell Hatton: Round 4 Over 69 Strokes
Hatton is the other golfer we are fading Sunday. Hatton is T14 at 6-under par after shooting a 69 on Saturday.
After shooting a 69 or higher in each of the past two rounds, we should expect further regression from Hatton. Amongst the field, Hatton ranks just 40th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 58th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 41st in SG: Tee-to-Green and 63rd in GIR%.
So, how is Hatton so high on the leaderboard? He ranks fourth in SG: Putting and sixth in Scrambling.
While it's good to have that part of the game working, it is not a sustainable way to compete in these events when the rest of your bag has struggled. It is far more likely Hatton is unable to keep going up-and-down from tough spots than it is that his score improves from the past two rounds.
I have faith in Hatton's putter and that will probably stay hot, but for a guy with a Scrambling percentage of 56.07% (169th on TOUR this season), regression is likely.
I would not play this total higher than 69.
