We're still another week away from the new PGA Tour season getting underway, but golf never stops.
This week we have one of the premier events on the DP World Tour with the BMW Championship at Wentworth.
It will be one of the few spots over the next year where we actually see some of the top PGA Tour names and LIV defectors at the same event.
The Course
Wentworth checks in at 7,284 yards for a par-72 course, usually proving not to be overly difficult unless heavy winds kick in.
It looks like rain could play a factor throughout the week, but I'd still expect the winner could be in the 15-20-under-par range with the soft conditions. (Danny Willett won in 2019 at 20-under par while Tyrrell Hatton and Billy Horschel have won at 19-under the past two seasons.)
It tends to be a second-shot golf course where established names rise to the top. Two of the past four winners of this tournament (Francesco Molinari and Willett) have a major championship to their name, while Hatton and Horschel have been able to take down their fair share of titles worldwide.
For those without that high-caliber win on the resume, iron play tends to go a long way toward success. We saw that when Byeong-hun An won in his first appearance at the event in 2015. Alex Noren also has a win here, and much of his success has come on courses where the approach game has been the separating factor.
The Favorites
We have most of the top Europeans headlining this week, starting with Rory McIlroy in the +500-600 range. McIlroy won here in 2014 and was runner-up in 2018. He doesn't always make the trip, playing just two of the past six years, but he was top 10 in both of those outings.
Jon Rahm is next at around +800. Rahm has played here once, finishing second in 2019. Things never really clicked for Rahm during the FedEx Cup Playoffs, but he's shown he can be a threat here if the iron game remains in good shape.
Matthew Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry follow in that next range at +1200 and +1600, respectively. These two held a share of the 36-hole lead in 2020 before fading over the weekend. Overall, the track record is solid for both, but they haven't really contended yet outside of that hot start two years ago (Lowry was second in 2014 to McIlroy).
Lowry has been remarkably consistent, finishing inside the top 20 eight of the past nine years. Fitzpatrick has been a lock to see to the weekend, making the cut in all six starts with four top 20s to his name.
In the +2000s, we find the defending champ Horschel along with Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Adam Scott and Tommy Fleetwood. Of the group, Scott seems to be coming in with the best form, having a pair of top 5s in the playoffs.
Fleetwood would be right there, as well, with two fourth-place finishes at The Open and the Scottish, but he hasn't been seen since then, and a two-month layoff is a little much for me to jump in at this price range and expect a win.
It will be Scott who makes my card in this range, though with a price as high as +3100 available. It's not too often we get him both in form and off a good run of events where the rust should be gone given his limited schedule. He was 14th here last season with nowhere near the Playoff success preceding it. So I think he's worth a play here.
The Midtier
We'll go to Thomas Pieters here at +5000 on BetRivers. Pieters was ninth a year ago and coming off an eighth place finish at the Czech Masters in his last start. Two victories on this tour in the past 10 months show he has the ability to win an event like this even with more of the stars coming out for a rare cameo.
Next up will be Branden Grace at +6000 on DraftKings. Grace has been as good as anyone playing LIV who will be making the trip over this week. He's got the win in Portland and was third in England. He's also had good runs here in the past with a couple of fifth-place finishes.
Grace is also the type of player who can fly underneath the radar of any LIV drama. He's not really among the bigger names who will draw the ire of the fans. With Grace's unassuming personality and the way he's traveled the globe over the past decade, it's unlikely that too many fans outside of the diehards know he's made the change in the first place.
I'll be going to Robert MacIntyre here, as well, at +8000 on BetRivers. Bobby Mac has had his troubles putting together a solid 2022 season. But last week in Denmark, he was among the top ball strikers, on his way to finishing 12th. That makes three top 20s in his last six starts after a string of poor play earlier in the summer.
MacIntyre's a player who has been expected to take that next step for a few years now in Europe. The form hasn't been great, but the talent is there, and with the signs of life last week, I like him at this price.
We'll also go to another Scotsman in Ewen Ferguson at +9000 on BetRivers. Ferguson has the 2022 World Tour rookie of the year race pretty much locked up. He's won twice and probably should have won in Denmark last week, as well. He was the odds-on favorite down the stretch before Oliver Wilson hit a couple of putts from outside 40 feet to sneak past him. It will be a definite step-up in field strength for Ferguson, but his game has seen a similar transformation to that of Will Zalatoris this season, albeit at a lower level.
The ball striking has never been in question, but the putter was completely absent at times. However in recent weeks, that concern has drifted away, and Ferguson's been holing the shorter putts with regularity.
The Longshots
With the class that shows up to this field each year, we haven't had too many surprises recently. Even Byeong Hun An's rookie win came at around +8000 since he entered with solid form.
I'll take one shot in the dark down here with Francesco Laporta at 250/1 on DK. Laporta is still looking for that World Tour breakthrough. In 2019, he showed he could be a great player at the lower levels, winning three times including the Challenge Tour Final.
It's been an up-and-down road since, though. But Laporta enters in good form, finishing fourth last week and 16th the week prior in Europe. He also finished sixth here a year ago on the back of a top-five result in his native Italy. It's a course that should fit his eye, and with the recent good play, I'll take a chance here.
The BMW PGA Championship Card
- Adam Scott +3100 (1.06 units)
- Thomas Pieters +5000 (.66 units)
- Branden Grace +6000 (.55 units)
- Robert MacIntryre +8000 (.41 units)
- Ewen Ferguson +9000 (.37 units)
- Francesco Laporta +25000 (.13 units)
Total Stake: 3.08 units
