Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland are T1 with a commanding four-stroke lead at 16-under par following the third round of the Open Championship. Now, we look forward to Sunday's fourth and final round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the fourth round of the 2022 Open Championship. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers an 11x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Rory McIlroy: Round 4 Under 68.5 Strokes
Rory McIlroy is T1 at 16-under par after shooting a 66 on Saturday. McIlroy has gone under this total in each of the first three rounds, a trend I expect to continue Sunday.
McIlroy has been in this position many times in his career — he is searching for his fifth major championship victory in his 56th appearance — so the pressure of a Sunday in contention for a major should not get to him too much. This season, McIlroy has been as dialed in as ever as he has finished inside the top-eight in all three prior majors.
Amongst the remaining field, McIlroy has been the best player out there before hitting the green as he ranks first in SG: Off-the-Tee and first in SG: Tee-to-Green. To get under this total, his putter will need to be strong, which is not something I am too concerned about.
On TOUR this season, McIlroy ranks ninth in SG: Putting.
I would play this total down to 68.
Tommy Fleetwood: Round 4 Under 70 Strokes
The other golfer we are backing on Sunday is Tommy Fleetwood. After successfully hitting this prop on Saturday, we are going back to the well.
Fleetwood is T8 at 9-under par after shooting a 66 in Saturday's third round. This momentum could carry over into Sunday. Fleetwood's game has improved as the tournament has progressed, so there is little reason to believe Sunday will be any different.
Even if Fleetwood regresses slightly, I would be shocked if he regresses by four strokes. Fleetwood's metrics are solid and the Englishman has plenty of major championship experience.
Fleetwood's usual problems arise because of his driver. However, you can get away with some bad tee shots at the Old Course.
I would play this number down to 69.5.
Patrick Cantlay: Round 4 Over 69 Strokes
This is another prop we hit on Saturday and are going back to the well on. Patrick Cantlay is T11 at 8-under par after shooting a 71 on Saturday.
While Cantlay is in 11th place, his metrics suggest further regression is looming. Amongst the remaining field, Cantlay ranks 18th in SG: Putting, 22nd in SG: Around-the-Green, 39th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 41st in SG: Off-the-Tee and 31st in SG: Tee-to-Green.
These underwhelming metrics are a cause for concern entering the final round, especially because Cantlay has not been dominant enough in any category to anchor his game. Cantlay has gone over this total in two of the first three rounds and I believe he will do so once again in the fourth round.
I would play this total up to 69.5.
Viktor Hovland: Round 4 Over 69.5 Strokes
Viktor Hovland is T1 at 16-under par after shooting a 66 on Saturday. Despite going under this total in each of the first three rounds, I am selling high on him.
Despite this tournament turning into a two-horse race down the stretch, I think Hovland will be in a completely different headspace than Rory McIlroy as Hovland lacks the major championship experience and success of McIlroy. Hovland has never had the pressure of a Sunday in contention and that could potentially rattle the 24-year-old a bit if he has a slow start.
Hovland has only appeared in 12 major championships prior to this week and has never finished inside the top-10. While that will certainly change this weekend, I do not think his game will remain as sharp as it has been through the first three rounds.
I would not play this number any higher than 69.5.
Dustin Johnson: Round 4 Over 69.5 Strokes
The last golfer we are fading on Sunday is Dustin Johnson. Currently, Johnson is in seventh place at 10-under par after shooting a 71 on Saturday.
Saturday's round was the first time Johnson went over this total in this tournament and I expect more of the same on Sunday. The best part of Johnson's game this week has been his putter, which is a club he seems to change or tweak every single tournament.
While I do not think his putting will regress too much on Sunday, it will be tough to rely on that if his scrambling continues to struggle. Entering the final round, Johnson ranks just 37th amongst the remaining field in Scrambling and 63rd in SG: Around-the-Green.
If Johnson continues to put himself in tough putting situations, then I believe it is more likely his putter does not continue to save the day for him, which is a fact we saw ring true when Johnson went over this total on Saturday.
I would play this total up to 70.
