Cameron Young shot a bogey-free 64 on Thursday and holds a two-stroke lead at 8-under par following the first round of the Open Championship. Now, we look forward to Friday's second round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the second round of the 2022 Open Championship. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers an 11x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Cameron Smith: Round 2 Over 69.5 Strokes
Cameron Smith is T3 at 5-under par after shooting a 67 on Thursday. While Smith flew under this total in the first round, we should expect some regression on Friday as his putter saved him throughout the first round.
Amongst the field, Smith ranks third in SG: Putting. However, the rest of his metrics are a big concern moving forward as he ranks just 48th in SG: Around-the-Green, 54th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 56th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 31st in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Another reason to fade Smith is the fact that he is teeing off in during the second wave on Friday. In the first round, there was a massive difference in the success between those who teed off in the first half of the day and those who teed off in the second half.
Smith had the advantage of being in the first wave Thursday, but Friday will be a different story.
I would not play this total any higher than 69.5.
Billy Horschel: Round 2 Over 71 Strokes
Billy Horschel is T77 at 1-over par after shooting a 73 in Thursday's opening round. After successfully hitting the over on this play in that round, I am going back to the well.
Horschel's lack of success at major championships continues to resonate as he has zero top-20 finishes over his past 22 major championship appearances. Coming off of two missed cuts prior to this tournament, I would not be shocked if Horschel is on a flight back to the states on Saturday.
His first-round metrics suggest not too much positive regression is likely as Horschel ranks just 124th amongst the field in SG: Putting, 60th in SG: Around-the-Green, 63rd in SG: Approach-the-Green, 67th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 51st in SG: Tee-to-Green. While I do believe Horschel will see positive regression in his putting, I think those strokes gained will be offset by the fact that he will now in the second wave on Friday.
I would play this number up to 71.5.
Collin Morikawa: Round 2 Over 70.5 Strokes
Collin Morikawa is T55 at even-par after shooting a 72 on Thursday. I do not foresee any positive regression for Morikawa on Friday as his metrics from that first round are very poor.
Amongst the field, Morikawa ranks just 75th in SG Putting, 130th in SG: Around-the-Green, 40th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 47th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 71st in SG: Tee-to-Green. Morikawa's poor play Thursday was particularly troubling as he was in the first wave, which will not be the case Friday.
I think we are getting some name-recognition value in this number, which means Morikawa could be a good fade candidate Friday.
I would play this total up to 71.
Joaquin Niemann: Round 2 Under 71 Strokes
Joaquin Niemann is T13 at 3-under par after shooting a 69 on Thursday. After successfully hitting this under on Thursday, I am going back to the well.
Niemann's iron play continues to stay strong as he ranks 12th in SG: Approach-the-Green and 23rd in SG: Tee-to-Green amongst the field, which is essential for success at the Old Course at St Andrews. We should not see any regression in these figures as Niemann ranks 16th on TOUR this season in SG: Tee-to-Green and 44th in SG: Approach-the-Green.
Niemann continues to make cuts and compete at major championships, but is trying to get over the hump this weekend in England. Niemann has made the cut in eight straight major championship appearances and posted three top-30 finishes in that span.
Niemann went under this total despite being in the second wave Thursday, so there is no reason to believe he will not do it again Friday now that he is in the first wave.
I would play this number down to 70.5.
Corey Conners: Round 2 Under 71 Strokes
The other golfer we are backing in the second round is Corey Conners, who is T35 at 1-under par after shooting a 71 on Thursday. We pushed on this prop Thursday, so we are giving it another attempt Friday.
I think it is entirely possible for Conners' score to improve Friday as his putting was not there in the first round, ranking just 66th amongst the field in SG: Putting. However, the rest of his metrics were much stronger as he ranks 28th in SG: Around-the-Green, 29th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 43rd in SG: Tee-to-Green.
If he can just get a few more of those putts to drop on Friday, he should be able to improve by at least one stroke.
I would not play this total any lower than 71.
