Low scores were the story on a quiet Thursday in Bermuda as the field tore up Port Royal to an average of better than three shots under par. Austin Smotherman and Harrison Endycott led the way with rounds of 9-under 62. However, they'll have their work cut out for them as they'll get the afternoon wave in what will certainly be much tougher conditions in Round 2. They also have tournament favorite, Denny McCarthy, lingering just one shot back.
Steady 15-20 mph winds will play tough on the coastal track. I think we could see some players who went low Thursday, really struggle on Friday, especially if their ball striking isn't quite there.
Unfortunately, we don't have strokes gained data to lean on as we look to find our buys heading into Friday. I'll use the traditional stats, but ultimately we are looking for value going into a day and weekend that will play completely different than what we saw Thursday.
Best Bets
Byeong-Hun An +3500 (DraftKings)
Quick disclaimer, I'm a sucker for Ben An. I've been playing him for as long as I can remember and despite the excruciating moments, mostly on the greens, I keep going back. I was looking into his game before the start of the week and while I knew his putter had been showing some big gains, I was surprised to see his ball-striking struggles. He is a guy who, over time, has been extremely reliable tee-to-green, but is also notably poor with the putter. I am going to jump on some signs of positive ball striking early this week as he missed just four fairways and greens in his opening round. His 6-under has him just a few shots back and that was while ranking T72 in putts per green. If he can get the putter going on Friday, he gets an early tee time that I will prefer every time in these conditions. I'm hopeful he can get in the clubhouse at a number that assures him a late tee time for the weekend.
Nick Taylor +8000 (DraftKings)
My favorite Friday bet is on Nick Taylor. He has a skill level well beyond these odds from just four shots back and is a rare TOUR winner in this field. Taylor fired a nice 5-under round to start his week as he missed just one green and only three fairways. There are so many directions that play could go on Friday and I am really happy to rely on skill level, with the added bonus of the early tee time. Taylor's TOUR win also came on another coastal and notably windy short track at Pebble Beach, which just lines up further with my thoughts that these odds are simply too long on the Canadian.
Adrian Meronk Top 20 +360 (FanDuel)
This is simply a play on talent at nice odds for overall what would be a marginal result for one of the top players in the field. Adrian Meronk is actually the second-best player in this field by OWGR, ranking only behind Seamus Power in that category. Meronk is ranked 61st in the world, but because he spends the majority of his time on the DP World Tour, he is not a familiar name for the casual fan. The 29-year-old from Poland got off to a slow start Thursday as he shot just 2-under and sits outside the cutline. I am going to buy in now on him making a move from the morning tee time on Friday. We don't even need too much on Friday because if he makes the weekend, he will have a shot at paying off this top 20 bet over the final two rounds.
