Ben Crane is in sole possession of first place and holds a one-stroke lead (14-under) following the second round of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
Now, we look forward to Saturday’s third round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the third round of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship Round 3 PrizePicks Plays
Denny McCarthy: Round 3 Under 69 Strokes
For the fourth consecutive year, Port Royal Golf Club in Southampton, Bermuda is hosting this event. Looking at the top of the three previous leaderboards, the metrics that indicate the biggest likelihood of success at this course include SG: Putting and Scrambling.
A shorter course, Port Royal is a par-71, 6,828-yard track that benefits strong green and green-side players because most pros don't have difficulty getting there off the tee. We are going to be backing a few golfers on Saturday, starting with Denny McCarthy.
McCarthy is T15 at 10-under. After shooting a 69 or lower in each of the first two rounds, we should expect another strong performance from McCarthy on Saturday.
There is no ShotLink data available for this event, which means knowledge of golfers' styles and metrics from past events/seasons will be the primary way to handicap this tournament. On TOUR this season, McCarthy ranks 89th in SG: Putting and eighth in Scrambling.
This strong short game is a continuation of last season, when he ranked second in SG: Putting and seventh in Scrambling. At Port Royal, he has made all four cuts in his career, including his 15th-place finish in 2019 and fourth-place finish in 2020.
McCarthy has also shot a 69 or lower in nine of his 14 rounds at Port Royal.
I would not play this total lower than 69.
Seamus Power: Round 3 Under 69 Strokes
Another golfer we are backing in the third round is Seamus Power, who is T7 at 12-under.
After shooting a 65 or lower in each of the first two rounds, we should expect Power to keep it going over the weekend. Power is off to a decent start this season and has made two of three cuts and posted a top-30 finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
On TOUR this season, he ranks 12th in SG: Putting. On TOUR last season, he ranked 40th in SG: Putting and 27th in Scrambling.
Like McCarthy, Power has played well at Port Royal as he has made all four cuts in his career with each of those resulting in top-40 finishes, including his 12th-place finish last year. Power has now shot a 69 or lower in nine of his 14 rounds at Port Royal.
I would play this number down to 68.5.
Aaron Baddeley: Round 3 Under 69.5 Strokes
The last golfer we are backing Saturday is Aaron Baddeley, who is T2 at 13-under.
Shooting a 65 or lower in each of the first two rounds, Baddeley is primed for more success over the weekend. Starting the year in good form, Baddeley finished T36 at the Fortinet Championship, his lone event of the season.
The main reason for his performance that week was his putter as he finished 35th in SG: Putting, the best of any of his metrics. Strong putting and scrambling are nothing new for the Australian, who finished the 2020-21 season ranking 46th and 15th on TOUR in those two categories.
I would play this total down to 69.
Erik van Rooyen: Round 3 Under 8 Fairways Hit
We are also going to fade a couple of golfers off the tee box on Saturday, starting with Erik van Rooyen, who is T15 at 10-under.
Despite the good score, his driver has struggled through the first two days of the tournament. He is only averaging eight fairways hit per round and it's likely van Rooyen goes south of this total rather than north.
On TOUR last season, van Rooyen ranked 79th in driving accuracy percentage and he ranked 96th the year prior. At a course with unpredictable wind patterns, eight or fewer fairways hit should be a safe bet for the third straight round.
I would not play this number lower than 8.
Charley Hoffman: Round 3 Under 7 Fairways Hit
The other golfer we are fading off the tee box on Saturday is Charley Hoffman. Entering the third round, Hoffman is T24 at 9-under and is averaging six fairways hit per round.
Like van Rooyen, Hoffman's history of underwhelming driver play should result in a third straight under in this category. Missing the cut in each of his first two tournaments this season, Hoffman has been hitting fairways at a horrendous 42.86% rate, which ranks 203rd on TOUR.
These numbers are not outliers either as he finished last season ranked 190th on TOUR in driving accuracy percentage and 148th the year prior. We should expect an underwhelming weekend from Hoffman.
I would play this total down to 6.5.
