Ben Griffin and Seamus Power are tied for first place and hold a two-stroke lead (18-under) following the third round of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
Now, we look forward to Sunday's fourth round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the fourth round of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship Round 4 PrizePicks Plays
Denny McCarthy: Round 4 Under 69 Strokes
For the fourth consecutive year, Port Royal Golf Club in Southampton, Bermuda is hosting this event. Looking at the top of the three previous leaderboards, the metrics that indicate the biggest likelihood of success at this course include SG: Putting and Scrambling.
A shorter course, Port Royal is a par-71, 6,828-yard track that benefits strong green and green-side players because most pros don’t have difficulty getting there off the tee. We are going to be backing a few golfers on Sunday, starting with Denny McCarthy.
McCarthy is T9 at 12-under. After shooting a 69 or lower in each of the first three rounds, we should expect another strong performance on Sunday.
There is no ShotLink data available for this event, which means knowledge of golfers’ styles and metrics from past events/seasons will be the primary way to handicap this tournament. On TOUR this season, McCarthy ranks 89th in SG: Putting and eighth in Scrambling.
This strong short game is a continuation of last season, when he ranked second in SG: Putting and seventh in Scrambling. At Port Royal, he has made all four cuts in his career, including his 15th-place finish in 2019 and fourth-place finish in 2020.
McCarthy has also shot a 69 or lower in 10 of his 15 rounds at Port Royal.
I would not play this total lower than 69.
Seamus Power: Round 4 Under 67.5 Strokes
Another golfer we are backing in the fourth round is Seamus Power, who is T1 at 18-under.
After shooting a 65 or lower in each of the first three rounds, we should expect Power to keep it going Sunday. Power is off to a decent start this season and has made two of three cuts while posting a top-30 finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
On TOUR this season, he ranks 12th in SG: Putting. On TOUR last season, he ranked 40th in SG: Putting and 27th in Scrambling.
Power has played well at Port Royal as he has made all four cuts in his career with each of those resulting in top-40 finishes, including his 12th-place finish last year. Power has now shot a 67 or lower in five of his past seven rounds at Port Royal.
I would play this number down to 67.
Aaron Baddeley: Round 4 Under 68.5 Strokes
The last golfer we are backing Sunday is Aaron Baddeley, who is T3 at 16-under.
After shooting a 68 or lower in each of the first three rounds, Baddeley is primed for more success. Baddeley has started the year in good form and finished T36 at the Fortinet Championship, his lone event of the season.
The main reason for his performance that week was his putter as he finished 35th in SG: Putting, the best of any of his metrics. Strong putting and scrambling are nothing new for the Australian, who finished the 2020-21 season ranked 46th and 15th on TOUR in those two categories.
I would play this total down to 68.
Erik van Rooyen: Round 4 Under 8 Fairways Hit
We are also going to fade a couple of golfers off the tee box on Sunday, starting with Erik van Rooyen, who is T28 at 9-under.
Despite the decent score, his driver has struggled through the first three days of the tournament. He is only averaging eight fairways hit per round and it’s likely van Rooyen goes south of this total rather than north.
On TOUR last season, van Rooyen ranked 79th in driving accuracy percentage and was 96th the year prior. At a course with unpredictable wind patterns, eight or fewer fairways hit should be a safe bet.
I would not play this number lower than 8.
C.T. Pan: Round 4 Under 9 Fairways Hit
The other golfer we are fading off the tee box is C.T. Pan. Entering the fourth round, Pan is T13 at 11-under and is averaging 9.7 fairways hit per round.
Despite Pan going under this total just once this week, now is the time to sell high on a guy whose driver has been terrible to start the season. Through the first three tournaments of the year, Pan is hitting fairways at a mere 53.05% clip, which ranks him 148th on TOUR.
These numbers are not outliers either as he finished 2020-21 ranked 97th on TOUR in driving accuracy percentage and was 99th the year prior. Despite a decent start to this tournament, we should expect an underwhelming Sunday.
I would not play this total lower than 9.
