Tony Finau is in sole possession of first place and holds a four-stroke lead (15-under) following the third round of the Cadence Bank Houston Open.
Now, we look forward to Sunday’s fourth round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the fourth round of the Cadence Bank Houston Open. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
For the third consecutive year, Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston, Texas is hosting this event. Looking at the top of previous leaderboards, the metrics that indicate the biggest likelihood of success at this course include SG: Putting and Greens in Regulation percentage (GIR%).
Memorial Park is a par-70, 7,412-yard track that benefits strong green players.
Cadence Bank Houston Open Round 4 PrizePicks Plays
Aaron Wise: Round 4 Under 69.5 Strokes
We are going to be backing a few golfers on Sunday, starting with Aaron Wise, who is T25 at 3-under. Despite going under this total just once this week (a 65 in the opening round), now is the time to buy low on a course that is built for Wise's game.
On TOUR this season, Wise ranks 19th in SG: Putting and 56th in GIR%. Wise enters this tournament in great form as he has made eight straight cuts dating back to last season. This season, he is three-for-three on made cuts, including his sixth-place finish at THE CJ CUP in South Carolina and his T15 finish at last week's World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba.
At Memorial Park, he finished in 26th place in 2021 and in 11th in 2020. An excellent putter, look for some positive regression from Wise on Sunday.
I would play this total down to 69.
Denny McCarthy: Round 4 Under 69.5 Strokes
Another golfer we are backing in the fourth round is Denny McCarthy, who is T35 at 1-under.
Like Wise, this is a good opportunity to buy low on McCarthy as he has failed to go under this number in each of the past two rounds following his 67 on Thursday. Despite his T35 position, McCarthy ranks 11th amongst the remaining field in SG: Putting and 26th in GIR%.
On TOUR this season, he ranks inside the top 95 in both SG: Putting and GIR%. On TOUR last season, he ranked second in SG: Putting.
Last year at Memorial Park, McCarthy finished 11th and shot a 69 or lower in two of the four rounds. In his first appearance at Memorial Park in 2020, he finished 38th and also shot a 69 or lower in two of the four rounds.
Look for McCarthy's putter to carry him into a better finishing position on Sunday.
I would play this number down to 69.
Maverick McNealy: Round 4 Under 69.5 Strokes
The last golfer we are backing in the fourth round is Maverick McNealy, who is T30 at 2-under.
McNealy has gone south of this total in two of the first three rounds, a trend that should continue Sunday. One of the best putters on TOUR, positive regression should hit that area of McNealy's game on Sunday. So far, he ranks 26th amongst the remaining field in SG: Putting.
On TOUR this season, he ranks fourth in SG: Putting. On TOUR last season, he ranked 19th in SG: Putting.
Entering this tournament, McNealy's putter has carried him to four straight top-20 finishes. It could do so once again on Sunday. Last year at Memorial Park, McCarthy finished 19th and shot a 69 or lower in two of the four rounds.
In his first appearance at Memorial Park in 2020, he finished 20th and also shot south of 69 in two of the four rounds. Look for McNealy's putter to carry him into a better finishing position on Sunday.
I would play this total down to 69.
Scottie Scheffler: Round 4 Under 7.5 Fairways Hit
We are also going to fade a couple of golfers off the tee box on Sunday, starting with Scottie Scheffler, who is T25 at 3-under.
Although he has hit eight fairways in each of the past two rounds, Scheffler should be in store for some regression. Scheffler is one of the best golfers on the planet, but it is not because of his driving.
On TOUR last season, he ranked 100th in Driving Accuracy at a mere 59.9%. Although he finished second at this tournament last year, this week has not gone as smoothly for the University of Texas alum, and Sunday probably won't be much better.
I would not play this number lower than 7.5.
Alex Noren: Round 4 Under 8 Fairways Hit
The other golfer we are fading off the tee box on Sunday is Alex Noren, who is T8 at 6-under.
Perhaps the biggest reason for his position entering the fourth round is his driver, which has been among the most accurate this week as he ranks second amongst the remaining field in driving accuracy percentage. Although Noren has gone over this total in each of the first three rounds, now is a great time to sell high on a guy who isn't typically very accurate off the tee box.
On TOUR this season, he ranks just 110th in driving accuracy percentage at a mere 58%. This ranking is not an outlier based on a small sample size either as he finished last season ranked just 148th (56.2%) and the year before at 133rd (58.3%).
With a lack of accurate driving over the past three years, regression should be expected from Noren's driver on Sunday.
I would not play this total lower than 8.
