Scottie Scheffler holds a two-shot lead and is 11-under after shooting a 68 on Saturday at Colonial Country Club. Now, we look forward to Sunday's fourth round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five Round 4 PrizePicks flex plays for the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge. For those unfamiliar with PrizePicks flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Scottie Scheffler: Round 4 Over 8.5 Fairways Hit
Scheffler currently sits in first place, which is a big benefit for this prop to go over. If he holds the lead, especially after the turn, he will play conservatively and look for safe shots down the middle of the fairway — even if It costs him some distance.
Scheffler has only gone over this number once in this tournament, which is why I believe we are getting a generous number. This season, Scheffler ranks 84th on TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee.
I would not play this total at anything higher than 8.5.
Mito Pereira: Round 4 Under 9.5 Fairways Hit
Pereira is currently T9 at 6-under after shooting a 68 on Saturday. I am going to contradict myself, so you will need to hear me out — we should fade golfers going off the tee box in the afternoon.
Obviously, that statement goes against my Scheffler pick above. However, as I mentioned, Scheffler has a massive advantage of being able to play conservatively off the tee box. The rest of the guys are trying to play catch-up and do not have that same luxury.
The reason we should look to fade golfers off the tee box in the afternoon is that the wind is supposed to drastically pick up around 1:00 p.m. local time, going from about 13-15 mph to 20-22 mph. This means that the morning golfers will only have to deal with the harsher wind for the back nine, while the afternoon golfers will have to deal with it for the entire round.
We saw this wind impact Pereira in Round 3 as he only hit eight fairways, his lowest mark of the tournament.
I would play this number down to 9.
Beau Hossler: Round 4 Under 7.5 Fairways Hit
Hossler is currently tied with Mito Pereira in ninth place at 6-under after shooting a 73 in Round 3. Utilizing the same logic as above, I am fading Hossler off the tee box as he is slated to tee off at 12:25 p.m.
Hossler only hit seven fairways on Saturday and should be a good fade candidate once again on Sunday. This season, Hossler ranks just 151st on TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee and 204th in Driving Accuracy.
I would not play this total at anything lower than 7.5.
Max Homa: Round 4 Over 7.5 Fairways Hit
Homa currently sits T50 place at 1-over par after shooting a 73 in Round 3. Utilizing the inverse of the information provided above, I am backing Homa to hit eight fairways as he could be off the course by the time the big winds come in due to his 8:20 a.m. tee time.
Homa's driver has regressed to the mean in Rounds 2 and 3 after a tough first round and he has gone over this total in each of those rounds. This season, Homa ranks 18th on TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee and 74th in Driving Accuracy.
I would not play this number at anything higher than 7.5.
Viktor Hovland: Round 4 Over 3.5 Birdies or Better
Hovland currently sits T24 after shooting a 73 in Round 3. I am expecting some positive regression from Hovland as his metrics have been great this tournament, except for a disappointing performance on Saturday.
Prior to Saturday, Hovland went over this total in each of the first two rounds. I mentioned in my article earlier this week that strong finishes relative to the rest of the field in SG: Approach, SG: Putting, SG: Tee-to-Green and Driving Accuracy had a strong correlation to success at Colonial Country Club.
Relative to the rest of the remaining field, Hovland currently ranks 26th in SG: Approach, 13th in SG: Putting, 38th in SG: Tee-to-Green and seventh in Driving Accuracy. This performance makes sense as Hovland currently ranks third, 29th, 31st and 40th respectively in those categories on TOUR this season.
I would play this total up to 4.
