With the PGA Championship now in the rearview mirror, we move onto the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge.
While this tournament has undergone many name and sponsorship changes over the last few decades, the one constant has been the host track. For the 77th time, this tournament will take place at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas.
Colonial Country Club is a par-70, 7,209-yard track that should offer a nice change of pace from the difficult Southern Hills course that many golfers in this field played last weekend. With an average winning score of 14-under par over the past five years, we could see some low scores this week.
While It is still early in the week, the weather forecast in the area is supposed to be sunny and warm for the first two rounds while the weekend could see big winds play a factor.
Looking at the five previous winners, this course will benefit accuracy, iron play, and putting. The long-hitters and scramblers will most likely not find as much success as those who excel in the aforementioned categories.
Relative to the rest of the field, the five previous winners have finished at an average of ninth place in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach the Green, 10th in SG Putting, third in SG Tee to Green and 15th in Driving Accuracy. We will utilize these four metrics, along with recent form and previous success at Colonial Country Club, to narrow down the best bets to make in this tournament.
Below, I give out my five Round 1 PrizePicks flex plays for the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge. For those unfamiliar with PrizePicks flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs/unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 10x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout, and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
Charles Schwab Challenge PrizePicks Plays
Collin Morikawa: Round 1 Under 67.5 Strokes
One of the top-five favorites to win this tournament, Collin Morikawa should be a good play this week. Morikawa has fared very well in his two career appearances at Colonial Country Club as he finished in 14th place last year and second place the year prior.
Over those eight rounds, Morikawa shot a 67 or better in five of them. Despite not having a win yet this season, Morikawa has been as sharp as ever as he has made the cut in 10 of 11 tournaments this season with six top-10 and four top-five finishes.
This course should play into Morikawa's strengths as he currently ranks 20th on TOUR in SG Tee to Green, ninth in SG Approach the Green, and 16th in Driving Accuracy.
I would not play this total at anything lower than 67.5.
Talor Gooch: Round 1 Under 68.5 Strokes
Another golfer I am backing not only in Round 1 but for the entire tournament is Talor Gooch. Currently 11th in the FedEx Cup standings, Gooch has flown under the radar all season as he has made five of his last seven cuts with all five of those finishes coming inside the top-25.
Gooch has fared well at Colonial Country Club as he has made the cut in three straight years, including a 14th place finish last year. Shooting a 68 or lower in the first round each of the last two years at Colonial Country Club, I am backing Gooch to do so once again.
An excellent iron player this season, Gooch ranks 28th on TOUR in SG Tee to Green and 20th in SG Approach the Green.
I would not play this number any lower than 68.5.
Abraham Ancer: Round 1 Over 9.5 Fairways Hit
Going over this total in three of the four rounds at Southern Hills last week, I am backing Abraham Ancer's driver once again this week at an easier course. This season, Ancer ranks 42nd on TOUR in SG Off the Tee and third in Driving Accuracy.
Last year at Colonial Country Club, Ancer went over this total in three of the four rounds.
I would not play this total at anything higher than 9.5.
Kevin Kisner: Round 1 Over 9.5 Fairways Hit
Another guy I am backing to find plenty of fairways in Round 1 is Kevin Kisner. On TOUR this season, Kisner ranks 13th in Driving Accuracy.
Last year at Colonial Country Club, Kisner went over this total in all four rounds. Before missing the cut last week at Southern Hills, Kisner went over this number in each of the first two rounds.
I would play this number up to 10.
Daniel Berger: Round 1 Over 8.5 Fairways Hit
The last guy I am backing out of the tee box is Daniel Berger. This season, Berger ranks 37th in SG Off the Tee and 15th in Driving Accuracy.
Like Kisner, Berger went over this total in each of the first two rounds last week at the PGA Championship before missing the cut. It is worth noting that Berger only went over this total once over the four rounds at Colonial Country Club last year.
That being said, I still like this number we are getting as Berger is much stronger with his driver now than he was at that time.
I would not play this total at anything higher than 8.5.
