The cream is rising to the top at the CJ Cup as Rory McIlroy took hold of the lead through 54 holes on Saturday in South Carolina. His 4-under round was one of the best of the day and he did it from the high pressure position of playing in one of the final groups. He'll carry a one-shot advantage into Sunday as he looks to close out the win and reclaim his spot as the top player in the world.
One player who did go lower than McIlroy in the third round was two-time TOUR winner, K.H. Lee. His 5-under round put him just one shot short of the lead and got him into the final group. They'll be joined by Kurt Kitayama, who jockeyed for position at the top of the leaderboard with McIlroy throughout much of the day and ultimately fell a shot back after his bogey on the 17th. Jon Rahm is also still right there, just two shots back, and there are 13 golfers within five shots as they enter the final round.
I'll be sticking by my McIlroy prediction from Friday, but there may be some others who have value going into the final day at Congaree Golf Club.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy in Round 4
I said it in the intro and I'll say it again — my pick to win is Rory McIlroy. Sure, he's had his struggles closing out wins in recent years, but I don't see it happening this time around. We again saw an early bogey from McIlroy on Saturday and I was wondering which guy would show up, but he quickly answered that question when he stuck his second shot to two-and-a-half feet on the par-5 4th. The 227-yard approach was what he needed to get the bounce back in his step. He kicked in the eagle and put himself right back near the top of the leaderboard. I don't doubt that he will have some stressful moments Sunday, but I think he ultimately walks away with the trophy and reclaims his spot as the top golfer in the world.
The other player I would take a shot on would actually be K.H. Lee. He knows how to win and stared down some big names for victory both times he won at TPC Craig Ranch. I don't think he will shy away from this moment and wouldn't be surprised one bit to see him fully embrace the opportunity.
Lee has been sixth best in overall play Tee-to-Green this week and ranks third in SG: Approach. He really has all of his game working and has maneuvered his way into the final threesome on Sunday. His odds are palatable at +850 and that's where I would go if looking for a player to be there should McIlroy stumble.
Tom Kim has been lingering around the bottom of the first page of the leaderboard throughout the week. He hasn't quite put it all together to make a move, but he could be someone to watch as he's just four shots back on Sunday. He has yet to get everything going at the same time as he putted well through the first two rounds and couldn't quite get one aspect or the other in ball striking going. He found that game on Saturday, but then the putter didn't cooperate. I'm going to peg him as someone who will go low in the final round and finally get it all together. It may not be enough to truly contend for the win, but I certainly like him for a spot in the top five and will sprinkle a bit on the +2800, just in case.
3 Golfers to Fade in Round 4
I'll double down against Jon Rahm. I feel less sure of it tonight than I did last night though as it really played out the way I hoped through the middle of his round. He started to falter around the turn as he had a stretch of three bogeys in four holes and seemed to be fading from contention. To his credit, he bounced back with three birdies in the final six holes and seemed to be more comfortable with his swing. Still, he hasn't had much with his irons all week and unless he suddenly found it on the back nine, it'll be hard for him to really compete for the win on Sunday.
Aaron Wise has come full circle with his iron play this week. He started by having an incredible opening round where he gained nearly six shots on the field, then came back to earth on Friday before going fully in the other direction in Round 3. Wise lost 2.39 shots to the field on approach on Saturday, but held steady with an even-par round to remain at 10-under. His putter really kept him in it with 2.28 strokes gained on the greens, but I can't rely on that to hold strong as he searches to find his swing in the pressure of a late Sunday tee time.
I probably shouldn't go here because I know it's his game, but I'm stubborn and just don't think Maverick McNealy can overcome negative ball striking. He is losing strokes to the field this week in both aspects of his ball striking and making up for it entirely on the greens. McNealy did finally gain strokes in the third round and paired it with more than four shots gained on the greens. I have it that he peaked with that outing and we should expect to see him revert back to the mean on Sunday and fall from his spot inside the top 10.
