Rory McIlroy is in sole position of first place and holds a one-stroke lead (13-under) following the third round of THE CJ CUP.
Now, we look forward to Sunday's fourth round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the fourth round of THE CJ CUP. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
THE CJ CUP Round 4 PrizePicks Plays
Rory McIlroy: Round 4 Under 68 Strokes
For the first time ever, Congaree Golf Club in Ridgeland, South Carolina is hosting this event. This track previously hosted one TOUR event, the Palmetto Championship in 2021.
Looking at the top of that leaderboard, the metrics that indicate the biggest likelihood of success at this course include SG: Tee-to-Green and Greens in Regulation percentage (GIR%). Congaree is a par-71, 7,655-yard track that benefits longer hitters.
We are going to be backing a few golfers on Sunday, starting with McIlroy. After shooting a 67 in each of the first three rounds, we should expect McIlroy to close this tournament out on Sunday.
This is McIlroy's first event of the season and the TOUR champion is picking up right where he left off. Amongst the field this week, he ranks second in SG: Tee-to-Green.
On TOUR last season, McIlroy ranked second in SG: Tee-to-Green and 12th in GIR%. He ended last season in incredible form as he made 10 of his final 11 cuts with two wins, eight top-10 finishes and 10 top-20 finishes.
This week is McIlroy's first event of the TOUR season, but he played three World Tour events in September. Those events obviously featured watered-down fields compared to the TOUR, but he still posted top-five finishes in all three tournaments.
I would play this total down to 67.5.
Scottie Scheffler: Round 4 Under 68.5 Strokes
Another golfer we are backing in the fourth round is Scheffler, who is T47 at even-par.
After shooting a 74 on Saturday, this is the perfect time to buy low on one of the best golfers in the world. Like McIlroy, this is Scheffler's first event of the season as he looks to repeat a year where he finished first in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR).
His iron play this week has been good enough to see much better results as he ranks 28th among the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and 20th in GIR%. The one aspect of his game that is holding him is back is his play on the greens. Scheffler ranks 75th in SG: Putting.
He is finding himself in great positions to score and once those putts start to fall, his score should positively regress at a quick pace. On TOUR last season, Scheffler ranked fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green and first in GIR%.
I would not play this number lower than 68.5.
K.H. Lee: Round 4 Under 68.5 Strokes
The last golfer we are backing on Sunday is K.H. Lee, who is is T2 at 12-under.
After shooting a 68 or lower in each of the first three rounds, we should expect another strong day from Lee. Among the field, he ranks sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green and fifth in GIR%.
While the results have not been there to start the season, his iron play is not the reason why. On TOUR this season, he ranks 17th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 33rd in GIR%.
His iron play was also solid last season as he finished inside the top-75 on TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green. At a course that rewards strong ball striking, I see no reason to suspect any regression from Lee on Sunday.
I would play this total down to 68.
Sam Burns: Round 4 Over 68.5 Strokes
We are also going to fade a couple of golfers on Sunday, starting with Burns. Entering the fourth round, Burns is T14 at 7-under.
His irons have not been very sharp as he ranks 49th among the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and 52nd in GIR%. Burns did not look as dialed in at the Sanderson Farms Championship, the only event he's played this season, as we have come to expect from the young star.
His ability to find greens was the problem in that tournament as he posted a mere 63.9 GIR%, which ranks him 170th on TOUR this season. Moving forward, Burns' irons will work themselves out and he will be back at the top of leaderboards.
However, for the time being, he should be faded at courses like Congaree until he gets back into form.
I would not play this number higher than 68.5.
Sungjae Im: Round 4 Over 69 Strokes
The other golfer we are fading on Sunday is Im. Entering the fourth round, Im is T38 at 2-under and has failed to break 70 in either of the past two rounds.
Like Burns, Im's iron play hasn’t been very strong this week as he ranks 43rd in SG: Tee-to-Green and 63rd in GIR%. Although his irons have been sharp to start the season, Congaree has just been a difficult track for Im to navigate.
Last time he was at Congaree, Im averaged 70.25 strokes per round. We might not get Im's most spirited performance on Sunday as he's far from the top of the leaderboard and may start looking forward to his next event.
I would play this total up to 69.5.
