We cashed in on our only matchup play last week at The American Express, bringing our overall record to 4-3 for 2022. Despite a second-round scare from Alexander Noren, we cruised to an easy win with Zalatoris finishing T-6 and the Swede missing the cut. It's always good to get the green checkmark on the Action App before the tournament is even over.
We head to the California coast this week for what should be a very exciting Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. The field is stacked with some of the game’s best who will take on a very different setup than the previous two tournaments to start the year.
While we have another course rotation on our hands for this week, three of the four will be played on the South Course at Torrey Pines, which provides us with an abundance of data to draw from.
For those new to the article, welcome! Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.
The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.
Below, I have outlined the matchups that have shown the most value in my simulations this week for Farmers Insurance Open. For every matchup, I will provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.
Let’s get to it!
Dustin Johnson (+100) over Marc Leishman
My line: -131
If you give me this matchup at this price, at any course in the world, I’m taking Dustin Johnson every time.
This is a great buy-low spot on Johnson, who is coming off a shaky end to 2021. He hasn’t played competitively in three months since the CJ CUP, which is likely why we’re able to get him here at a plus number.
It’s worth noting that Leishman does have an incredible track record at this event, having made nine straight cuts.
In the end, though, I’m going to take the former No. 1 player who’s currently ranked No. 4 over the 34th-ranked player at plus money every day of the week, regardless of where they’re playing.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+104) over Billy Horschel
My line: -121
I actually have Bezuidenhout as the favorite in this matchup.
The South African is incredibly consistent, although he’s still searching for a potentially breakthrough win. He’s made 19 of his last 20 cuts on TOUR and ranks 24th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 24 rounds. Horschel is 122nd in that category.
Horschel has been struggling with his ball-striking of late, as well. He’s lost strokes on approach in three of his last four events.
The only reason for concern in this matchup is Bezuidenhout’s lack of familiarity with Torrey Pines. He missed the cut at last year’s U.S. Open, which was the only time he’s played in La Jolla.
I’ll roll with my model here, though, and take the player who I have rated as the favorite at plus money.
