The first Wednesday on TOUR was an exciting one as several of the top players in the world teed it up at historic Torrey Pines.
As is customary this time of year, the players went off split tees on the North and South Courses in La Jolla. The difference across the courses was immense, as players on the historically easier North Course averaged 2.90 shots under par, while the players on the South Course grinded to an average score of .78 shots over par.
Those who enjoyed the North Course will take on the South for Round 2 on Thursday, while those who were on the South will get an easier challenge on the North, which creates an interesting betting market after the first day.
Billy Horschel set the pace on the North Course and on the leaderboard with a bogey-free 9-under 63. He leads Michael Thompson by one shot after the opening round and is two shots over Kevin Tway and Stephan Jaeger.
Some of the bigger names lurk at 6-under after Wednesday, including Rickie Fowler and Francesco Molinari. Jon Rahm is the first name that shows up from the South Course, and he was the best player on the more difficult track on Wednesday, shooting the best round of the day on that course at 6-under, besting Peter Malnati and Luke List by one shot.
Naturally, we want to look for the top players from the South Course who will head over and look to make moves in easier scoring conditions in the second round. The good news is that we will have Strokes Gained numbers to sift through for those players, but we only have traditional stats for those players coming off of the North Course.
I'll focus on best bets for the opening rounds, while getting back into the more traditional buys and fades once we have data for all players in Rounds 3 and 4.
Best Bets
Tony Finau +2800 (PointsBet)
Before we get into the players going from the South to the North Course, I am going to take a leap on Tony Finau, who is headed the other direction on Thursday.
Finau shot a 5-under 67 to start the tournament and did it with sharp iron play. He only missed one green in regulation on the North Course, which will transition well to what he needs to do to stay in the mix in the second round.
Finau is also someone who has a history of playing well at Torrey Pines South, and I expect he will be more equipped than most to handle the more difficult course.
We are getting a solid number on Finau, right about where he was pre-tournament, and I think he could be the player that stays above many of the others during the tougher round.
Scottie Scheffler +3300 (BetMGM)
If there's a player with the ability to put everything together and post a really low round tomorrow on the North Course, my list starts with Scottie Scheffler.
It was surprising to see Scheffler struggle off the tee on Wednesday, but he made up for those lost strokes with a red-hot iron game. Scheffler gained three shots on the field on approach in his opening round on the South Course. His 2-under 70 is a solid start to the week and sets him up to make a move in Round 2.
The former Texas Longhorn will now head to the easier track, and he can position himself well for the later rounds with a low score on Thursday. We are getting a nice number on an elite player that is destined to find his first win sooner than later, and this is certainly a course that should fit his game.
If you are skeptical he can pull off the victory, BetRivers is one of the few books stateside that will allow you to simultaneously play it as an EachWay bet paying out a top-five finish at 1/5 of the odds.
Joaquin Niemann (+200) 3Ball over Hideki Matsuyama & Jason Day
If you are playing matchups or Showdown on DFS, my favorite player on the board is Joaquin Niemann.
The Chilean gets the benefit of heading to the North Course off of a solid 3-under opening round on the South. Everything about the North Course plays into his favor, as it features his preferred bentgrass greens and is one of the easiest courses on TOUR each season for scrambling.
Niemann's biggest issue is and has always been around the greens, but he also continues to have big struggles on Poa greens. Those two factors are the reason I am hesitant to buy in on him as an outright, even at a solid +4000 number available between rounds, but I love his chance to move into a solid position with a low round on Thursday.
I may finally get there to add the outright, but for now he is simply my favorite for Round 2.
