2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship Odds, Best Bets: Our 5 Picks for Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, More

Editor's note: Hideki Matsuyama has withdrawn from the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship.

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And then there were three.

We have three tournaments remaining in the 2021-22 PGA TOUR season. It seems like just yesterday that Max Homa was winning the opener in Napa last year around this time. We've seen players go from good to great and some incredible finishes along the way.

Now, the FedExCup Playoffs begin with the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. TPC Southwind has been an annual stop on the PGA TOUR calendar for more than 30 years, but this is the first time its hosting a playoff event.

Rory McIlroy is the betting favorite, coming off a stellar string of results already this summer. The likes of Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Smith lead the way among players not far behind him on the odds board.

With an elite field this week, some familiar names are a little lower on the odds board than usual. Our GolfBet staff has targeted them and a few others this week for their favorite picks in Memphis.

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2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks

Collin Morikawa +3300 (BetMGM, BetRivers, WynnBet)

Jason Sobel: First things first: During a summer of lost luggage, it’s nice to know that a player whom you’re betting has all the right tools of the trade arrive at his destination — and that is the case with Morikawa this week, though it wasn’t without a bit of trepidation, as he tweeted a photo from his plane of his travel bag laying helplessly on the tarmac, then later updated with another photo showing he’d received it.

Here’s hoping he wore out those clubs during his recent three-week break, following a pair of missed cuts at the Scottish Open and The Open Championship.

(One good sign: When I showed up at TPC Southwind on Monday morning, the first player I witnessed on the practice range was indeed Morikawa.)

Even though he was the defending champion at the latter, I don’t put too much stock into form at those overseas starts. In his last appearance on U.S. soil, Morikawa finished in a share of fifth place at the U.S. Open.

What I do like is that his odds have drifted, which historically has been a signal that we should start playing him. He won the 2020 Workday Charity Open at 35-1, the 2020 PGA Championship at 30/1 and the 2021 Open Championship at 30-1. In between, he’s owned some much shorter prices, meaning he’s the type of player we should target when the public least suspects it.

In a game that’s so often cyclical, we’ve seen an uptick on players such as Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas, just to name a few. As they often say in NBA games, every team goes on a run at some point. This just might be Morikawa’s time to go on a run, much like Patrick Cantlay last year.

Despite those recent struggles, Morikawa’s iron game has remained elite. We know he owns the ability to win whenever his putting is just above-average, which means only a small improvement from his past two Memphis starts. On a course where iron play is the most important metric, I like Morikawa to start that proverbial run.

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Hideki Matsuyama +5000 (BetMGM, BetRivers, Caesars, WynnBet)

Chris Murphy: I’m clearly a glutton for punishment going back to Hideki Matsuyama this week since I have been notably burned by him in every way shape and form this year between his withdrawals (THE PLAYERS and 3M Open) and the disqualification at the Memorial.

Still, I will bet on the talent at a number that is far too enticing for me to pass on a player who lost in a playoff at this tournament last year and has consistently played well at TPC Southwind in his career.

Matsuyama is still one of the elite iron players on TOUR when he has his game going and despite recent results, he can turn that on in a hurry. He has shown the ability to do that both on approach and on the greens, and in those weeks where those two things come together he is still a threat to win.

I’ll bite at the +5000 number available on multiple sites knowing that I am getting a solid discount on a top player.

Will Zalatoris +2500 (BetMGM, BetRivers, Caesars, WynnBet)

Matt Vincenzi: For the past few weeks, we've seen Zalatoris near the top of the odds board. Despite being one of the most talented players in the field, there was nothing about Detroit Golf Club or Sedgefield Country Club that made me interested in betting him at those spots. The opposite is true about TPC Southwind.

When targeting Will Zalatoris for an outright bet, it's most prudent to look for spots on the schedule where his immaculate ball striking can set him apart from the rest of the field.  The Rocket Mortgage Classic rewarded driving distance and wedge play. The Wyndham Championship rewarded the best putters and most accurate drivers.

This week, the FedEx St. Jude Championship will favor the best iron players who can ball strike their way to the top of the leaderboard. In the past, Strokes Gained: Putting hasn't been a strong indicator of who will play well at TPC Southwind, which is great news for Zalatoris who often struggles with the putter.

As evidenced by his three top-six finishes including two runners-up at major championships in 2022, Zalatoris can absolutely compete in the strongest of fields. In fact, I believe his chances to win in a star-studded event are higher than they are to win a lesser event on TOUR. The 25-year-old is a big game hunter who does his best work when the stakes are high.

The first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs is an excellent time for "Willy Z" to finally break through for his inevitable maiden PGA TOUR victory.

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Jordan Spieth +3300 (WynnBet)

Derek Farnsworth: I was going back and forth between Spieth and Zalatoris as my best bet for the week (for the record, I bet both) but decided on the former because I had some fun digging through his results at this event last year.

When hitting from the fairway on par 4s and 5s or hitting from the tee boxes on the par threes, Spieth was 18-under par. When he missed the fairway, he was 8-over. By far the biggest improvement in his game this season has been off the tee. He’s gone from 135th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee last season to 29th this season.

If Spieth is consistently playing from the short grass, how do we not like his chances this week? His iron play has been tremendous this season, and he has always had magic around the greens. His putting has turned into a weakness, but we’ve seen quite a few golfers contend at this event while losing strokes with the flatstick. And we know with Spieth that it only takes a couple to go in before the hole starts to look like a basketball hoop.

Spieth finished in the top 10 in his last two starts at the Scottish and British Opens, and he should be well-rested after taking three weeks off.

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Tony Finau +2200 (BetMGM, FanDuel, WynnBet)

Landon Silinsky: I probably don't need to go too deep into why Finau is a good bet this week.

I mean, the man has won his last two PGA TOUR starts, something you don’t see often. In the process, he's gained over 11 strokes ball-striking in each of the wins. I certainly expect that level of play to continue into this week.

TPC Southwind is not an easy test, and you must be hitting it well to contend. It will come as no surprise, but Finau ranks No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking and Strokes Gained: Total across his past eight rounds.

There have only been two instances since 2004 (26 total) that someone has won three consecutive PGA TOUR starts; Dustin Johnson in 2017 and Rory McIlroy in 2014. Finau will look to become No. 27 on that list, and I would not put it past him with the way he's playing.

Russell Henley +6000 (WynnBet)

Bryan Berryman: I’m going back to Henley again this week. His fifth-place finish last week at Wyndham marks top-10 finishes in back-to-back starts. In both weeks, Henley finished inside the top three in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. He led the field last week in Strokes Gained: Approach and Fairways Hit, both of which have been a staple of his game for years and will be vital to success this week in Memphis.

TPC Southwind is a difficult golf course. With water in play on 10 holes and nearly 100 bunkers scattered across the 7,244-yard layout, elite ball-striking will be paramount. Henley leads this stacked field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 24 and 50 round sample sizes. He also ranks 22nd in Fairways Hit and seventh in greens in regulation over the last 50 rounds. This sort of consistency should keep Henley out of trouble, and in the mix this week.

The only question is Henley’s putter, particularly inside of 10 feet. He missed 10 of these such putts last week, many of which were inside the 6-foot range. This is ironic considering he ranks 12th in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda greens over all rounds tracked.

If Henley can get the short putting squared away, there’s no reason to believe he can’t get the job done this week.

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