While the betting world might always have their minds on sleepers in any given PGA TOUR tournament, the underdogs don’t get much attention once the FedEx Cup Playoffs kick into gear.
The TOUR invites 125 players to the postseason, yet the focus and the big money are paid to the world’s best players. Looking back at recent playoff event winners is simply reading off some of the biggest names in golf. Finau, Cantlay, DJ, Rahm, Koepka, JT.
There hasn’t been an abnormal winner in a FedEx Cup Playoff event since Keegan Bradley in 2018. Logically, this makes sense. These fields include all of the game’s best, with a few million reasons for them to come with their A-games.
On top of that, most of the top players have coasted into the postseason with some rest weeks, while those further down the standings have needed to grind to secure their place in the postseason.
Eventually, however, we’re going to see a dark horse steal one of these events and launch himself near the top of the FedEx Cup chase. If that is going to happen this season, these four names stand out with a chance to pull off the upset:
Taylor Pendrith +10000 (DraftKings)
It’s not easy to find a hotter player with less buzz entering the FedEx Cup Playoffs than Taylor Pendrith. The Canadian 31-year-old missed more than four months of play after he finished T13 at the Players Championship in March. Since returning, he hasn’t missed a cut – or even finished worse than T13.
Whatever Pendrith found in his game during his absence has been apparent on the course, particularly when he finished T2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit.
Over the last three months, he ranks 13th worldwide in total strokes gained, per DataGolf. That mark is partially helped by a small sample size, yet four straight top-15 finishes should not be ignored.
Brendan Steele +15000 (bet365)
Steele has similarly been sneaky hot in the summer months. Since the start of May, Steele has missed just one cut in six starts. In that span, he has two top 10s, both against strong fields at the PGA Championship and Memorial Tournament.
His game is peaking at the right time, especially from tee to green. Over the last three months, Steele is sixth in the world in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, thanks to top-10 rankings in approach and off the tee stats.
His issues have come on the greens where he ranks 145th worldwide in that same period, per DataGolf. It can be torturous to bet on a player with a frosty cold putter, but of the areas of the course, putting has always proved the most elastic. If Steele can find the stroke for just a few rounds, he could climb the leaderboard this weekend. That’s worth a flyer.
Chez Reavie +15000 (BetRivers)
Pendrith and Steele look attractive due to their recent play. For our next two sleepers, let’s look at past performance at TPC Southwind.
Reavie has played this venue seven times, making the cut in each of his last six appearances. He has not finished worse than T27 since missing the cut in his first start here. Best of all, Reavie has been T12 or better in four of his last five trips to TPC Southwind.
On top of that success here in Memphis, Reavie is playing well. He was T8 at the Travelers in late June and won the Barracuda Championship in July.
That combo of history in Memphis and recent play makes him a threat to play really well this week.
Trey Mullinax +25000 (bet365)
According to DataGolf’s metrics, no player has gained more strokes against the field, compared to his expected baseline, than Trey Mullinax. In his two appearances at this venue, he has two top-20 finishes. He was T18 here back in 2017 and T6 in 2018.
It has been a few years since he’s had the chance to return, yet it’s clear that this is a course where Mullinax feels comfortable.
Like Reavie, we have some recent results, including a win, to feel good about when betting Mullinax this week. He was T21 at the Open Championship, after earning his spot in that major with a win back in the states at the Barbasol Championship.
Coming off four rounds of 71 or better at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Mullinax is a steal at this price.
