J.J. Spaun shot a 68 on Saturday and holds a one-stroke lead at 13-under par following the third round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Now, we look forward to Sunday's fourth round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the fourth round of the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Cameron Smith: Round 4 Under 67 Strokes
After pushing on this prop yesterday, we are going to give it another try. Smith is T3 at 11-under par after shooting a 67 on Saturday.
Smith has now shot a 67 or lower in each of the first three rounds, a trend I expect to continue Sunday. Playing the sharpest golf of his career this season, Smith boasts three wins and seven top-15 finishes over his past 13 tournaments.
We have seen this strong play continue through the first three rounds of this tournament. Amongst the remaining field, Smith ranks 12th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 16th in SG: Off-the-Tee, ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green, eighth in Greens in Regulation percentage (GIR%) and 17th in Scrambling.
I would not play this total lower than 67.
Joohyung Kim: Round 4 Under 67.5 Strokes
We successfully hit on this prop Saturday and are going back to the well Sunday. Kim is T17 at 8-under par after shooting a 66 on Saturday.
As we expected, Kim's Saturday went much better than the first two rounds. His putter was the one club in his bag holding him back entering the weekend and the putts finally started to drop.
With the putter starting to work, it was extremely likely Kim's score would drop because of how great the rest of his game has been. Amongst the remaining field, Kim ranks 10th in SG: Approach-the-Green, ninth in SG: Off-the-Tee, fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green and sixth in GIR%.
I would play this number down to 67.
J.T. Poston: Round 4 Under 68.5 Strokes
You may be picking up on a trend here as I am a massive believer in "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." That being said, we are going back to the well on another prop we successfully hit Saturday: Poston's under.
Poston is T29 at 6-under par after shooting a 68 on Saturday. TPC Southwind is a course that suits Poston's game well, benefiting those who are great iron players with a strong ability to scramble.
On TOUR this season, Poston ranks 51st in SG: Tee-to-Green and 19th in Scrambling. Poston has been playing the best golf of his career recently with four top-25 finishes over his past five tournaments, including his win at the John Deere Classic and his second-place finish at the Travelers Championship.
Poston has shot a 68 or lower in six of his past 10 rounds at TPC Southwind. Add in his recent form and he should be able to do so once again on Sunday.
I would not play this total lower than 68.5.
Xander Schauffele: Round 4 Over 67.5 Strokes
Another play we hit on Saturday: Schauffele should continue to struggle on Sunday. Schauffele has failed to break this total in each of the first three rounds and enters the final round T61 at 1-under par.
We are getting some name-recognition bias with this total, especially considering Schauffele's poor metrics thus far. Amongst the remaining field, Schauffele ranks just 69th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 58th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 66th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 60th in GIR%.
As predicted, Schuaffele's putting was not able to keep his game afloat. Those putts started to miss, resulting in a big decrease in Schauffele's scoring in the third round.
With how poor the rest of his game has been, we should not expect positive regression on Sunday. Over his past seven rounds at TPC Southwind, Schauffele has shot a 68 or higher each time.
I would play this number up to 68.
Shane Lowry: Round 4 Over 68.5 Strokes
The other golfer we are fading on Sunday is Shane Lowry. After the first three rounds, Lowry is T52 at 3-under par.
This could be another situation where we are getting value due to name-recognition bias. Lowry is another golfer whose performance has hinged on his putting, which is most likely unsustainable.
If Lowry just misses a few extra putts on Sunday, his score will take a big dip as the rest of his game has struggled. Amongst the remaining field, Lowry ranks just 54th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 66th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 63rd in SG: Tee-to-Green and 68th in GIR%.
I would not play this total any higher than 68.5.
