2022 Fortinet Championship Updated Odds, Expert Picks: Bet Rookie Taylor Montgomery in Napa

After a couple weeks away, the PGA TOUR begins its 2022-23 season this week. This will mark the final year of the wraparound schedule we've come to know over the past decade as the TOUR will shift to a calendar year version in 2024.

The season opener looks like many events we'll see in the fall — a bit devoid of star power. Most of the game's top Europeans are playing across the pond while the rest of the game's elite are prepping for the Presidents Cup next week.

But with the additions of the recent Korn Ferry grads, we'll see some interesting value opportunities in this type of field.

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The Course

Silverado Resort and Spa (North) measures at around 7,200 yards for a par 72 and has hosted this event since 2014.

The tee ball has been a strong trait of the previous winners here. Whether they bomb it like Cameron Champ or find an accuracy/length balance like Brendan Steele and Emiliano Grillo, having the driver dialed in this week will be key. The winner last season, Max Homa, had a solid all around year, but the tee ball was where he ranked the best on TOUR, finishing 25th in Strokes Gained for that category.

Stewart Cink also cited improved length as his reason for winning. All four par fives are short enough that a solid drive will set up easy birdie chances.

The short game and comfort on poa annua greens will be a nice bonus as we shift back to California this week. Adam Hadwin, Brandt Snedeker and Kevin Na all have finished second here and aren’t necessarily known for their ability to drive it long.

The Favorites

Homa, Hideki Matsuyama and Corey Conners all make up this top section, opening in the +1600-1800 range. All three will also make the trip to the Presidents Cup next week as well. Homa's obviously got the win here, and Matsuyama has a pretty solid history as well with three top 20s in four starts, so these guys are definite threats here.

I'm not really interested in betting them at these prices though and will hope they're all looking ahead to the competition next week.

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The Midtier

We'll open here with Sahith Theegala who opened as high as +4000 and quickly got cut to +3000 on BetRivers. Theegala will be among the most popular plays this week.

He's coming off a strong rookie year in which he reached the TOUR Championship at East Lake, which qualifies him for all four majors next year. He's also got the California ties as a Pepperdine alum. Outside of those top three names, I figured he'd slot in that next range at around +2000, so the opening number was a gift, and even that +3000 is higher that expected.

Next up is Taylor Montgomery who also had his opening number slashed from +6600 to +5000 pretty quickly. Montgomery is the guy off the Korn Ferry Tour I expect the most from. He didn't have any weaknesses last season on the lower circuit outside of accuracy with the driver.

But he was inside the top 20 in distance, GIR, putting, scrambling and birdies, so he's got the complete game. He's shown in a few limited starts that his game can hold up. He's also got the West Coast experience, playing out of Las Vegas. I imagine if his form carries over this fall, we'll see him near the favorites when the Shriners rolls around.

We'll also play Chez Reavie at +8000 on BetRivers. Reavie's ball striking to close last year flew under the radar a bit. He gained strokes on approach in his final seven events and picked up a win in the Barracuda stableford event. He's shown some strong results in the state in the past, notably that win and a top five at the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach.

The putting and short game were in the best place to close the year, so maybe a shift back to poa annua greens will provide some help there.

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The Longshots

In the eight previous years on this course, three winners came from the triple-digit range, so it's not a bad place to take a couple shots.

We'll start here with Patrick Rodgers at 100/1 on BetMGM. Rodgers has finished sixth here twice and has made the weekend each of the past five years. Rodgers is a pretty good driver, and the putter is usually solid, so this is one of the better spots for him.

I'll also go with Brandon Wu on DraftKings at 130/1. Wu had a solid rookie season where he made his way into the playoffs. He closed last year pretty well too, finishing inside the top 10 at the Scottish Open and Wyndham. He's another California guy who played his college golf at Stanford.

Being a resident isn't everything, but four of the past eight champions have called the state home including Homa, Champ and two-time winner Brendan Steele, so the West Coast edge has been helpful.

We'll also take a shot here with Austin Smotherman at 200/1 on BetMGM. Smotherman is another former California resident who now resides in Dallas. His ball striking was up to the PGA TOUR level last season as a rookie, but the short game wasn't.

He managed to maintain status though thanks to a few LIV defections at the end of the year. Poa was by far his best putting surface last season as he hovered around TOUR average on it. So we'll take a chance with him in a spot that might be more comfortable.

Fortinet Card

• Sahith Theegala +3000 (1.1 units)
• Taylor Montgomery +5000 (.66 units)
• Chez Reavie +8000 (.41 units)
• Patrick Rodgers +10000 (.33 units)
• Brandon Wu +13000 (.25 units)
• Austin Smotherman +20000 (.16 units)

Total Stake: 2.91 units

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