2022 Fortinet Championship Updated Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions: Brandon Wu & 2 More Bets for PGA TOUR Season Opener

After an agonizing three-week break, the 2022-23 PGA TOUR season kicks off in Napa Valley at the Silverado Resort and Spa to play the Fortinet Championship.

The event was previously called the Safeway Open but the tournament sponsor changed to Fortinet last year taken over as the tournament’s sponsor and will do so for the next five years. Although the name has changed multiple times, Silverado’s North Course has been featured on the PGA TOUR since 1968.

The course is a par 72, measuring at 7,166 yards. Silverado features Poa annua greens that can be tricky, especially as the surface becomes bumpier in the afternoon. The tree-lined fairways aren’t easy to hit, but the rough shouldn’t be exceedingly penal. Shorter hitters are in play on this relatively short course, and accuracy will be at a premium.

The field will consist of 156 players. Being the swing season, the field for this event is usually relatively weak. However, there are some intriguing names in the field including Hideki Matsuyama, Max Homa, Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, Cameron Champ, Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim and Matt Kuchar.

Past Winners

• 2021: Max Homa (-19)
• 2020: Stewart Cink (-21)
• 2019: Cameron Champ (-17)
• 2018: Kevin Tway (-14)
• 2017: Brendan Steele -15
• 2016: Brendan Steele -18

Let’s take a look at several key metrics for Silverado to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

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Strokes Gained: Approach

Historically, one of the North Course’s defenses will be tightly tucked pin placement, so effective shot-shaping and a higher ball flight may be an advantage this week. In order to find success, players need to hit the correct level of the sloping Poa annua greens.

Strokes Gained: Approach past 24 rounds:

1. Brendan Steele (+23.6) (+18000)
2. Chez Reavie (+22.0) (+5000)
3. Mark Hubbard (+18.6) (+15000)
4. Corey Conners (+18.3) (+12000)
5. Adam Schenk (+16.6) (+18000)

Good Drives Gained

Hitting fairways in regulation at Silverado is more difficult than TOUR average, as players have done so in the past at a rate of only 52.2%. While the rough isn’t extremely long here, controlling spin out of the thick grass is much more difficult than doing so from the fairway. In order to find success, players need to hit the correct level of the sloping Poa annua greens.

The top eight players on the leaderboard all had a positive week in "Good Drives Gained. The winner, Max Homa was +3.3 in the category and Mito Pereira, who finished third, was +8.3.

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Good Drives Gained past 24 rounds:

1. Corey Conners  (+30.9) (+5000)
2. Chez Reavie (+27.4) (+11000)
3. Ryan Armour (+26.4) (+5000)
4. Hayden Buckley (+22.3) (+6000)
5. Adam Long (+21.6) (+17000)

Par 4: 400-450

There are six par 4’s at Silverado that are between 400 and 450-yards. It will be important to target players who excel at playing these holes. With the par 5s being fairly short and reachable, the par 4 scoring may prove to be the bigger difference-maker.

Par 4: 400-450 past 24 rounds:

1. Andrew Putnam (+14.5) (+2200)
2. Chesson Hadley (+14.1) (+3700)
3. Tyler Duncan (+13.5) (+6000)
4. Corey Conners (+12.7) (+9000)
5. Adam Svensson (+11.7) (+480)

Birdie or Better: Gained

With scores at Silverado potentially approaching the 20 under par range, making plenty of birdies will be a requirement in order to contend this week.

Birdie or Better: Gained in past 24 rounds:

1. Taylor Moore (+25.3) (+480)
2. Cameron Davis (+24.7) (+9000)
3. Trey Mullinax (+22.5) (+1100)
4. Emiliano Grillo (+20.2) (+5000)
5. Adam Svensson (+19.9) (+3500)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Annua)

Poa annua greens on the West Coast can be quite difficult for golfers to adjust to if they don’t have much experience on the surface.

Prior to the 2019 Safeway Open, Phil Mickelson talked about how the type of putting surface is a major factor:

“I think a lot of guys struggle with the Poa annua greens, which is a grass that I grew up playing, so I’m very comfortable on the greens. When you grow up and spend most of your time back east in Florida on the Bermuda, this is a very awkward surface to putt on. The color looks different — it’s hard to sometimes read. But when you’re used to it, I don’t know of much better surfaces than these right here.”

This week it is important to look for the golfers who historically excel on Poa annua.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

1. Matt Kuchar (+28.1) (+11000)
2. Denny McCarthy (+21.7) (+42000)
3. Webb Simpson (+18.6) (+4100)
4. Mark Hubbard (+18,.0) (+15000)
5. Zac Blair (+17.6) (+5000)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: APP (25%), Good Drives Gained: (25%), Birdie or Better (20%), Par 4: 400-450 (15%), SG: Putting (Poa annua) (15%).

1. Taylor Moore (+480)
2. Chesson Hadley (+3700)
3. Mark Hubbard (+5000)
4. John Huh (+15000)
5. Lee Hodges (+9000)
6. Taylor Pendrith (+2200)
7. Brendan Steele (+18000)
8. Corey Conners (+8000)
9. Stephen Jaeger (+11000)
10. Hayden Buckley (+5000)

Fortinet Championship Best Bets

Brandon Wu (+13000, DraftKings):I've been extremely high on Brandon Wu since arrival on the PGA TOUR scene starting in early 2022. It certainly hasn't been a case of consistent success for Wu, but he's shown some flashes of what made him so successful in college and on the Korn Ferry Tour.

The 25-year-old had a few impressive events in his first PGA TOUR season including finishing in a tie for 3rd at the Puerto Rico Open, a tie for 2nd at the Mexico Open, and tie for 6th at the Genesis Scottish Open. Now that Wu has had a taste of life on the PGA TOUR, he might be in a position to take advantage of some weaker fields during the fall swing.

Wu should also be incredibly comfortable playing golf in California. The Stanford product won a national championship as a senior at Stanford, and his four years of golf in the area will ensure he's familiar with the feel and agronomy of the golf course.

There will be a lot of excitement surrounding the recent Korn Ferry Tour graduates playing in the event, but Wu is a more seasoned player than most of them and can be bet at longer odds.

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Beau Hossler (+13000, DraftKings): Last year, I embraced the narrative of betting on golfers who have California ties to play well at Silverado. The approach is partially what led me to choosing Max Homa as my headline selection, and the decision paid off handsomely.

Beau Hossler is another golfer who will feel right at home at the golf course. The 27-year-old grew up in California and won multiple amateur championships as a teenager in the state.

In addition to his amateur golf, Hossler has had a good deal of success on the PGA TOUR in his home state. Last year, he finished 3rd at Pebble Beach and also has a top ten finish at Torrey Pines (2020), and back-to-back top-25 finishes at Silverado ending with a 16th place last season.

Once a highly regarded young player, Hossler's potential has yet to be fulfilled on the PGA TOUR. Although he's looked shaky thus far when in contention, he's still young enough to get his career on the right track going forward. The lesser field this week should enable him to contend this week if he can find the ball striking to match his usually reliable putting stroke.

James Hahn (+15000, DraftKings): You may be noticing a theme with my selections thus far, and James Hahn fits in nicely. Hahn grew up in Alameda, California and went to the University of California to play his collegiate golf.

The 40-year-old has an excellent track record on California courses on the PGA TOUR, and his first TOUR win was captured at Riviera back in 2015. Hahn also has top-5 finishes in his career at Pebble Beach and PGA West.

Hahn showed his fondness for Silverado two seasons ago when he finished in 9th place. He's a very "boom or bust" type player and missed the cut in more than half of his starts in 2022. However, among the starts where he played the weekend, he managed to have some strong finishes.

He had three top-10 finishes including a 4th at the 3M Open only a few months ago. In fact, Hahn finished the season strong, and gained 6.0 strokes ball striking at the FedEx St. Jude to conclude his season.

It's tempting for bettors to bet the young up-and-comers during swing season, as the weaker fields create opportunity. However, veteran journeymen tend to be able to feast on weak fields just as well as the inexperienced players.

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