Max Homa and Danny Willett are tied for first and hold a two-stroke lead (12-under) following the second round of the Fortinet Championship.
Now, we look forward to Saturday's third round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the third round of the 2022 Fortinet Championship. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout, and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
Fortinet Championship Round 3 PrizePicks Plays
Max Homa: Round 3 Under 69.5 Strokes
We are backing multiple golfers in the third round, starting with Max Homa. As mentioned in the intro, Homa is currently T1 at 12-under par.
After shooting a 67 or lower in each of the first two rounds, I see no reason to expect any regression for the defending champion of this tournament. His iron play has been outstanding, which is usually the biggest predictor of success at Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course).
Amongst the remaining field, Homa ranks sixth in SG: Approach-the-Green and SG: Tee-to-Green. The California native has succeded at this course, making four of five cuts here and shooting a 67 or lower in five of his last six rounds.
Homa was incredible last season, finishing fifth in the FedEx playoffs and 24th SG: Tee-to-Green. Ending the season on fire, he made 17 of his last 18 cuts while posting nine top-20 finishes.
I would play this total down to 69.
Tom Hoge: Round 3 Under 70 Strokes
Entering the third round, Tom Hoge is T16 at 5-under par. Shooting a 70 or lower in each of the first two rounds, we should expect more of the same over the weekend.
Hoge's game has been incredible except for his putter, ranking just 58th amongst the remaining field in SG: Putting. That being said, he also ranks inside the top-20 in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Total, GIR%, Scrambling, and Driving Accuracy.
Clearly his game has been solid, but those putts just are not falling. However, those putts will start to fall, and when they do, I expect the rest of his game to keep propelling him up the leaderboard.
Making four of his last five cuts at the North Course, Hoge knows the track well enough to keep scoring over the weekend.
I would not play this number lower than 70.
Chris Kirk: Round 3 Under 70.5 Strokes
The last golfer we are backing on Saturday is Chris Kirk. Entering the third round, Kirk is T59 at 2-under par.
This tournament has been turbulent for Kirk through the first two rounds, posting a 74 on Thursday and 68 on Friday. We should expect the weekend to go more like round two.
A tremendous iron-player, Kirk finished 20th on TOUR last season in SG: Tee-to-Green. He really found his game during the final stretch of the season, making eight of his last nine cuts and posting four top-20 finishes over that span.
We saw that golfer once again on Friday, and I believe it is likely he carries that momentum into Saturday. Additionally, this is a track that Kirk has succeeded at previously, making three of four cuts and finishing eighth in 2016.
I would play this total down to 70.
Hideki Matsuyama: Round 3 Over 70 Strokes
We are also fading a couple of golfers on Saturday, starting with Hideki Matsuyama. Entering the third round, Matsuyama is T42 at 3-under par.
I believe we are getting a generous number on this total because of some name recognition bias, because quite frankly, Matsuyama has been terrible this tournament. While he birdied two of the final three holes on Friday to survive the cut, there is no aspect of his game that gives me confidence for any improvement over the weekend.
Amongst the remaining field, Matsuyama ranks just 70th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 60th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 44th in SG: Total, 53rd in GIR%, and 70th in Driving Accuracy. I suppose his putting could save him a few times on Saturday, but not enough to improve his score by two strokes.
I would play this number up to 70.5.
Gary Woodland: Round 3 Under 6.5 Fairways Hit
The other golfer we are fading on Saturday is Gary Woodland. Entering the third round, Woodland is T42 at 3-under par.
While he hit nine fairways on Thursday, he only hit six in round two. Based on his driving accuracy last season, we should expect the weekend to go more like round two.
On TOUR last season, Woodland ranked just 141st in Driving Accuracy at a mere 56.8%. These fairways play tricky as they weave through trees and have challenging undulations, making me confident that Woodland struggles off the tee-box once again on Saturday.
I would not play this total lower than 6.5.
