Updated 2022 Genesis Invitational Odds & 7 Picks for Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy, More

Coming off the thrilling playoff in last weekend's Waste Management Open, this week's tournament has a major-tournament feel thanks to the fact that it includes each of the top 11 players in the world.

Jon Rahm is the consensus betting favorite, but there's a host of players hungry for a victory this week. So where does the betting value lie?

Our GolfBet staff has you covered with favorites to longshots, prop bets and more. Here are our best bets for the 2022 Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club.

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Matthew Fitzpatrick Top 10 (+300)

Jason Sobel: Initially, I wanted to list Fitzpatrick as my favorite outright this week, but his opening price of +3500 was just too short — especially considering some of the other heavy hitters around the same number.

I’ll still sprinkle a little on him for the win, but I think there’s more sense in a top-10 play.

Fitz is a guy I’d been targeting for this event — I even mentioned that in my Pebble Beach preview a few weeks ago — and his recent form hasn’t done anything to dissuade, as he returned from a two-month absence with back-to-back finishes of T-6 at Pebble and T-10 in Phoenix.

There are a few reasons to like him this week and perhaps the foremost is his propensity for playing well when scoring is tougher; last year, his four-round total of 7-under was good enough for a share of fifth place. For a player ranked second this season in strokes gained on approach shots, sixth in strokes gained tee-to-green and first (!!) in strokes gained total, this all makes way too much sense.

Again, while we’ve witnessed first-timers win each of the last three events, I’m a bit skittish for the outright play, but love this prop, as I do believe he’ll seriously contend, based on that intersection of form and history.

Collin Morikawa +1800

Chris Murphy: It’s hard to ignore getting the second-ranked player in the world at odds that start with close to a 2. I’ve decided that rather than question them, I’ll just buy in on a player in Collin Morikawa who I know I can rely on for elite play tee to green. Morikawa is unquestionably the best iron player in the world and that will always be a key to success at Riviera.

The only reason I can see for the discounted odds on Morikawa this week is based on his track record at this event. He has finished outside of the Top 25 in both appearances to this tournament as he struggled on and around the greens in those weeks. Morikawa gained more than six shots on approach in both of those prior years, but lost strokes with his short game including a horrific 7.6 shots lost on the greens last year.

The caveat to remember with Morikawa in that particular week is that it was the first time he had used the “saw” putting grip, and would go on to use it to win the WGC Concession the following week.

I’m taking the value on a player who makes a ton of sense at this course and if he brings his short game, we are getting great odds on one of the best players in the world.

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Dustin Johnson +1600

Matt Vincenzi: The younger talent on the PGA TOUR is, at the moment, arguably as good as it’s ever been. Jon Rahm is playing at an all-time level, Patrick Cantlay seems to contend every single week, and Collin Morikawa has two majors at the age of 25.

With loads of hype surrounding these players, it would seem that future Hall-of-Famer Dustin Johnson has slipped through the cracks this week. For a golfer who hasn’t finished outside of the top 16 in his past eight starts at Riviera — including a win and three additional top-five finishes — there is extraordinary value on this number.

We last saw DJ at Torrey Pines, where he was fresh off of a long layoff from playing, and he managed to play very well despite the rust. He finished in 25th and gained 8.3 strokes from tee to green.

The following week, he found himself in contention at the Saudi International and was dominant from tee to green but failed to sink enough putts to fall to win.

With evidence of peaking form from the 37-year-old, Riviera is one of the most likely spots on TOUR for Johnson to notch his 25th PGA TOUR victory.

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Rory McIlroy +2200

Landon Sillinsky: Rory McIlroy's price was the first thing that stuck out to me this week. He's likely getting a price discount here because we have yet to see him play a PGA TOUR event in 2022. His past two starts came in Europe and he posted finishes of T-3 and T-12, respectively, so his game is clicking right now.

This will be McIlroy's sixth career start at Riviera, a track that's been kind to him over the years. Taking out last year's uncharacteristic missed cut, the Irishman has a pair of T-20s with a T-4 and T-5 in four of his past five trips.

McIlroy ranks fourth in this field in total strokes gained across his past 48 rounds and is one of the purest ball-strikers the game has ever seen. Anytime we can get him at better than 20/1 in any field, he’s close to an auto-bet.

Bubba Watson +4500

Bryan Berryman: I have one rule of thumb when it comes to betting on Bubba Watson: “Play Bubba at Bubba courses.” What does this mean, exactly?

Seven of his 10 career PGA Tour victories have come at a total of three courses. When a course fits his eye, he consistently performs well. There are numerous examples of this phenomenon with Watson (two wins and a fifth at Augusta; two wins and four top 5s at Travelers), but none more apparent than his track record of success at Riviera. He’s won this event three times in 10 career starts, with three additional top-15 finishes.

Watson has also been rounding into form of late. He followed up a second-place finish at the Saudi International with a 14th-place finish last week, gaining nine strokes tee to green on the star studded Waste Management Open.

This week, we get an ‘in-form’ Bubba, at what is arguably his favorite course on the entire PGA Tour schedule at +4500. Sign me up.

Bet Watson at Caesars and get a $5,000 risk-free first bet.

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Jordan Spieth Top 10 (+550)

Shane McNichol: This is a great spot for Jordan Spieth, now playing his fourth event in a row on the PGA TOUR. He was runner-up at Pebble Beach two weeks ago before a made cut in Phoenix last week.

Spieth returns to Riviera with some success on the course in previous outings. He’s played nine professional tournaments at Riviera, posting seven made cuts and four finishes inside the top 15. Spieth hasn’t missed a cut at Riviera since 2016 and he was T15 last year at this event.

Spieth’s recent string of events hasn’t produced the most eye-popping analytical data, yet he’s finding ways to get the ball in the hole. His creative style of play fits well at a course like Riviera that demands a variety of shots.

I was intrigued by this bet when I saw it offered at other books for +300 or +350, but at this price, Spieth is a must-play.

J.T. Poston Top 40 (+300)

Rob Bolton:After last week’s satisfying 5-for-5 on the make-the-cut parlay, and at a tournament that gave me fits for years (until attending it regularly helped me understand the experience of TPC Scottsdale), FanDuel’s bank of parlays couldn’t persuade me to go fishing again at Riviera. Another time, perhaps.

BetMGM’s parlays weren’t terribly attractive, either, at least for the kickback, but this is to be expected when so many of the sport’s top talents convene for the same competition on a familiar course in ideal weather.

So, I’m fine with limping into a surging Poston because of this favorable rate.

With 54 percent of the field (65 of 120) guaranteed to cash and right around three-fifths of that promised a top 40, I want a guy who’s likely to survive the cut, obviously, but who’s figured out Riviera well enough to support the hope.

After an 0-fer fall — he missed his last eight cuts of 2021 — Poston opened the new year with three paydays in four starts, two of which resulting in top 25s, so he’s reversed course for the good. He’s also perfect in getting to the weekend at The Riv, with three top 30s and a T43 last year. One stroke lower and he’d have all top 40s.

Now, we just need The Postman to deliver on Sunday.

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