With the Hero World Challenge being the final event of the 2022 season that I'm covering here at Action Network, I just wanted to take a moment to thank everyone who has taken some time out of their day to read my articles over the past few months.
I realize that the ability to view or listen to every bit of information is an impossible task from a consumer standpoint, so if you have given me even a single moment throughout the year, I can't tell you how much I appreciate the support.
Without you, I wouldn't be able to do what I love, and I look forward to continuing our hot run in 2023, where I will be back in full force when we start back up in Hawaii at the Tournament of Champions.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports, where I will provide my pre-tournament model — a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings for golf.
That sheet is free and released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Cameron Young (-114) Over Jordan Spieth (BetRivers)
It's always hard to find head-to-head wagers for events like this because the tournament should be viewed as nothing more than a high-end exhibition that allows everyone four days of golf.
That isn't my ideal setup when placing a wager, but the ability for us to pinpoint an edge shouldn't be discredited, especially if we can locate an opponent we're willing to take on in various matchups.
I talked about this concept on the Links and Locks podcast with Roberto Arguello this week when we landed on the same player we were looking to attack in head-to-head wagers. Whether you decide to go Roberto's route of Max Homa over Jordan Spieth — which is equally strong — or the eventual path I took of Cameron Young, there does seem to be an opening against the 29-year-old since my model believes he is the most overvalued commodity on the board for a handful of reasons.
Part of that overinflation from the public will stem from Spieth's recent surge and long-term pedigree of success.
But even if the aggression does marginally help his upside for a no-cut event, at what cost does that come into play if books are heavily baking that into his price tag and ignoring a floor output that ranks near the bottom of the field?
The three-time major winner graded second-to-last in my model for weighted proximity when gearing it toward Albany, and the individual metrics — such as projected scoring ranges or weighted tee-to-green marks — pushed him even further down my list and created a volatile golfer that had very little safety to count on for a head-to-head wager.
That doesn't mean the three-time major winner can't pop for a weekend at a tournament he has provided three top-six finishes at in his career. But the recent results of 20th and 16th did show the boom-or-bust nature that I generally would like to avoid.
I love the fact we can fade Spieth by taking Young, a golfer who's one of my better upside climbers when given four rounds.
