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I was so excited to tout back-to-back winners in this article, but Patrick Cantlay had other plans.
Cantlay's final round was one of the more bizarre 18 holes of golf I have ever seen from a professional golfer of his caliber. He was tied for the lead after the second hole and then collapsed, finishing the day with nine bogeys and a double bogey. Spoiler alert — that was not enough to win the tournament. In fact, he fell out of the top 10 completely.
We dust ourselves off and turn our attention to the John Deere Classic. There isn't a single golfer in the field that's ranked in the top 50 in the world, so a longshot winner is certainly more viable than most weeks.
TPC Deere Run is a par-71 that measures 7,289 yards that has played as the sixth-easiest course on the PGA TOUR over the last few years. While there aren't a lot of similarities in skill sets of past winners, making birdies is a must. If you don't make at least 20 birdies, you will have a tough time staying near the top of the leaderboard.
With fairways that average 39 yards in width, driving accuracy is extremely high (75%) at this course year over year. With easy-to-hit fairways, short approach shots and average-sized greens, the green in regulation percentage (74%) here is extremely high each and every year. You don't have to be a bomber or a plodder to have success here, but I am looking for three skills in particular — hitting fairways, good wedge play, and good putting (bentgrass greens).
Favorite Bet: J.T. Poston +5500
I expect Poston to be a popular tip this week after finishing second at the Travelers Championship. He made a huge run on Sunday and finished second in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.2) for the week.
Poston has been trending in the right direction for quite some time. If you compare his statistics over the last two years, the last six months, and the last three months, this is very evident. In fact, he's ninth in this field in ball striking and fifth in this field in birdie or better percentage over the last three months.
The course should fit Poston nicely and he's playing with great confidence, so this number is too good to pass up.
Favorite Longshot: Vaughn Taylor +15000
You want a longshot? How about Taylor, who has finished top 40 at this event in four straight appearances?
His form hasn't been great over the last two seasons, but he has dealt with a hip injury. Taylor is finally healthy again and the results should soon follow.
The most encouraging part is his recent iron play. He has gained over 12 strokes on approach in his last three starts combined. The irons are clicking, he's top 20 in this field in driving accuracy, and he's a positive putter on bentgrass. I'll be backing up this outright with a top-10 and top-20 bet on Taylor.
Favorite DFS Play: Lanto Griffin $8,200 DraftKings / $9,400 FanDuel
Griffin let us down last week at the Travelers, but we can forgive him for one bad outing. He really only had one bad stretch of holes, as he played well on Friday and was 3-under par at one point on Thursday.
Griffin gains strokes off the tee, he's one of the better iron players in the field, he's a top 20 putter on bentgrass, and he makes a ton of birdies. He checks a lot of boxes for me this week, and it doesn't look like he's going to be a popular target, which is always a positive for tournaments.
Good luck!
