2022 John Deere Classic Odds, Prop Picks: Bets for Cameron Davis, Webb Simpson

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It certainly isn’t the best field of the year – maybe the worst, actually – but that might mean good things for bettors at the 2022 John Deere Classic.

Without a top-50 player in the world in the field, our knowledge throughout the PGA TOUR season should come in handy this week. I’m targeting two players with my props who have played well — especially compared to most of the field — in recent years on the links. Both can keep up in what should be a birdie-fest, and I see value in betting them in the Quad Cities.

Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I’ve found value in backing two players in the props market this week in Illinois. Both are strong on approach, and have the high birdie or better percentage that is needed to compete on this easier course.

Let’s get to it.

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Cameron Davis — Top 20 (+220)

With a winning score expected to eclipse the 20-under range, I’m targeting golfers who have a high birdie or better percentage this season. There's no better fit for that category than Cameron Davis, who ranks first in this field in birdie or better percentage over the last 50 rounds.

Davis' approach game has also been trending in the right direction, ranking sixth in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 24 rounds. When you combine his recent ball striking with a top-10 ranking in Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass greens, you have a player primed to attack this setup.

Davis also has a history of success at events played on easier tracks. His lone win came at Rocket Mortgage last July with a winning score of 18-under. Including that win, he’s had seven top-15 finishes the last three seasons in weeks where the winning score was 18-under or better.

He may not be the player you want to target in a U.S. Open, grinder-style format, but in birdie-fests like this one, Davis sets up nicely.

Webb Simpson — Top 20 (+100)

Simpson is clearly the best player in this weak field.

Even though he hasn’t been at his best this season up to this point, there are many signs that point to a breakout performance in the coming weeks. Simpson has gained strokes on approach in six straight events and is coming off his best finish of the year last week at the Travelers, where he finished 13th in a much tougher field than this one.

Over the last 50 rounds, he ranks fifth in this field in birdie or better percentage, which will play a major factor this week. Oftentimes these types of events can turn into putting contests. He ranks ninth over the last 100 rounds in Strokes Gained: Putting on bentgrass greens.

Simpson's combination of pure talent, course fit and birdie-making ability puts him in the elite category in this field. I love his chances to crack the top 20 this week at even money.

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