JT Poston is in first place with a four-stroke lead at 15-under par following the second round of the John Deere Classic. Now, we look forward to Saturday's third round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the third round of the 2022 John Deere Classic. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
J.T. Poston: Round 3 Under 67.5 Strokes
As I mentioned above, Poston is in first place at 15-under par after shooting a 65 on Friday. Going well under this total in each of the first two rounds, I do not expect to see any regression from Poston over the weekend.
In terms of metrics, Poston is absolutely dominating the field. He ranks 13th in SG: Putting, fifth in SG: Around-the-Green, ninth in SG: Approach-the-Green, ninth in SG: Off-the-Tee and first in SG: Tee-to-Green. One of my pre-tournament outright picks to win, Poston's game is built for this course.
TPC Deere Run rewards players with good iron play, solid putting and great scrambling ability. This season, Poston ranks 32nd on TOUR in Scrambling and is inside the top 90 in both SG: Putting and SG: Tee-to-Green.
While "top 90" may not sound appealing to everyone, we must remember that this tournament is insanely watered down due to the major event next week and Poston's season metrics actually put him toward the top of this field. This tournament is a great opportunity for Poston to bring home a win as he has been playing his best golf of the season with two top-10 finishes over his past five tournaments.
I would play this total down to 67.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout: Round 3 Under 68 Strokes
Another golfer I am backing to continue his solid play in this tournament is Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who is T15 at 8-under par after shooting a 65 on Friday.
After a troubling start to the tournament on Thursday, Bezuidenhout rebounded in a big way Friday and improved by four strokes. This improvement was no coincidence as Bezuidenhout improved in almost every key metric across the board.
Between rounds one and two, Bezuidenhout saw a 158% increase in SG: Around-the-Green, a 105% increase in SG: Approach-the-Green and a 600% increase in SG: Tee-to-Green. Remarkably, his scrambling and driving accuracy took a dip in round two and he was still able to put up these outstanding improvements.
I expect another strong round from Bezuidenhout and would play this number down to 67.5.
New Caesars Sportsbook users will get a $1,500 risk-free bet when they sign up and deposit.
Scott Stallings: More Birdies in Round 3 than Maverick McNealy
Before we get too excited, this prop will be graded as a loss if they have the same amount of birdies (eagles/aces count as birdies in this prop). That being said, I think this is a tremendous opportunity to sell high on McNealy.
In round two, McNealy shot a 63 after recording an outstanding nine birdies. However, his shaky iron play is a big concern moving forward.
McNealy ranks just 64th amongst the field in SG: Around-the-Green, 47th in SG: Approach-the-green and 37th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Stallings ranks higher than McNealy in all three of those categories.
McNealy has not had the success Stallings has entering this tournament as he has failed to finish inside the top 25 in nine straight stroke-play tournaments. Despite a dominate second round, I think it is more realistic to expect McNealy's weekend to look more like his first round.
Brendon Todd: Round 3 Under 11 Fairways Hit
I am also fading a few golfers off the tee-box this weekend, starting with Brendon Todd. Currently, Todd is T24 at 6-under par after shooting a 65 on Friday.
While Todd has hit 12 or more fairways in each of the first two rounds, I expect regression on the weekend. On TOUR this season, Todd ranks just 170th in SG: Off-the-Tee and hits fairways at a 69.5% clip.
While that 69.5% statistic is excellent and one of the best numbers on TOUR, it is still far below the 89.3% driving accuracy he boasts in this tournament. Even if Todd hits 10 fairways Saturday, he would still have a driving accuracy of 71.4%, which would be above his season average.
I would not play this total at anything lower than 11.
Emiliano Grillo: Round 3 Under 10.5 Fairways Hit
The other golfer I am fading off the tee-box on Saturday is Emiliano Grillo, who is T3 at 10-under par after shooting a 64 on Friday.
Like Todd, I am fading Grillo despite him going over this total in each of the first two rounds. This season, Grillo is hitting fairways at a 65.4% clip.
However, through the first two rounds of this tournament, Grillo is sitting at 82.1% driving accuracy. It is certainly easier to hit fairways at TPC Deere Run. However, these numbers are just far beyond what these guys average this season and there will be more pressure on the weekend (especially on moving day).
There is a reason the PrizePicks crew has both of these guys' fairways totals set below what they have done in the first two rounds and I agree with their hypothesis that regression is looming.
I would not play this number lower than 10.5.
