There was a stretch of golf Saturday at the John Deere Classic where it looked like we may have a truly tight tournament going into the final round. Instead, J.T. Poston made an eagle on the par-5 17th to stretch his lead to three shots heading into Sunday, nearly holding serve on the lead he held after two rounds.
Scott Stallings made the biggest moved to contention on Saturday as his 7-under 64 got him into the final pairing with Poston for the final round. Stallings' bogey-free round has him just three shots back, alongside Emiliano Grillo and Denny McCarthy. Those three will present the biggest threat to Poston on Sunday as only one additional player is at 15-under on the week, making four players within four shots.
This tournament certainly seems to have quite a bit of similarity to Poston's win at the Wyndham Championship and it will be interesting to see if he can hold it together for the final round.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy in Round 3
I'm done trying to beat J.T. Poston, which seems like a fairly ridiculous statement in it's own right, but the fact is he's been far and away the best player on the course this week. Even when it seemed like he may be stumbling, he found the eagle he needed to stretch his lead back out to three shots going into the final round. He is listed at +100 over on BetMGM, which gives him 50/50 odds to win, a shade lower than the 53% win probability projected by DataGolf. I'm not going crazy there, but there is little reason to believe anyone else will be lifting the trophy Sunday evening.
Unless someone goes something like 10-under or better, it's hard to see anyone beyond the guys at 14-under as having a chance to win. I'm going to stop my consideration for outrights at that number and I really don't even see much in the way of odds to consider at those levels. Instead, I'll look to buy for top 5s on players like Cameron Davis, who has played well all week.
The Australian is a known scorer and can put birdies or better together in bunches, which is exactly what I am seeking on this type of Sunday. He's gained more than two strokes per round tee to green and more than that with his ball striking. If he can do that again in the final round, he could certainly be poised to be a great scoring player in DFS and be in line for a top-5 finish at +500 on DraftKings.
I'll dig deeper for my final buy and it will come with Greyson Sigg at 10-under and T21 for the tournament. He is a player many expected to shine on TOUR after his promotion from the Korn Ferry, but he has just two top 25s and five straight missed cuts. However, this week he has been putting together some really good play, gaining better than a stroke on the field with his irons each day. He seems to have found something tee to green over the past two rounds and I expect he can put together a strong Sunday to complete his first top 20 of the year. At +150 he presents some plus money value to get it done.
3 Golfers to Fade in Round 3
The story for Chris Naegel has been a great one this week after he Monday qualified into the event. He shot consecutive 66s to start the tournament and added a 67 on Saturday. My concern for him is that his irons haven't been there across the past two days. He has lost nearly two strokes on approach combined across the past two rounds and is going to need to find it to finish well from a late afternoon pairing on Sunday. The pressure will certainly be high for Naegel in this spot and while I'd love to see him finish his great story off in style, I think the most likely outcome is to see him drop over the final 18 holes.
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Bo Hoag has been all over the map this week. He went from nearly four SG: Tee-to-Green on Thursday to 1.77 shots lost in the category. He followed it up with a great 8-under round of 63 on Saturday, during which his irons and short game were simply sizzling. I'm going to pretty much blindly play the "it's hard to follow a great round with another" side of things on a player who has missed his past eight cuts. Hoag also hasn't seen a top-15 finish in nearly a year and those things tend to weigh on players who still aren't quite there day to day with their game.
I was a buyer on Adam Svensson earlier in the week, but it's time to play the fade at this stage in the tournament. He has lost strokes to the field in both metrics of his ball striking this week and relied entirely on a hot putter. It has been wild to see because that is the exact opposite of his game most weeks and the unfortunate thought for me is that he likely loses his putter on Sunday. If he happens to keep it going and the irons come back, he could certainly go low, but I am putting my money on the former happening in the final round.
