J.T. Poston is in first place with a three-stroke lead at 19-under par following the third round of the John Deere Classic. Now, we look forward to Sunday's fourth and final round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the fourth round of the 2022 John Deere Classic. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
J.T. Poston: Round 4 Under 67.5 Strokes
After successfully hitting this prop in round three, we are going to the well once again. As I mentioned above, J.T. Poston is in first place at 19-under par after shooting a 67 on Saturday.
After going under this total in each of the first three rounds, I do not expect to see any regression from Poston over the weekend. In terms of metrics, Poston is absolutely dominating the field as he ranks 24th in SG: Putting, third in SG: Around-the-Green, fourth in SG: Approach-the-Green, 10th in SG: Off-the-Tee and first in SG: Tee-to-Green.
If you look at the rest of the leaderboard, there is not another golfer who ranks inside the top-five in three of those five metrics. One of my pre-tournament outright picks to win, Poston's game is built for this course.
TPC Deere Run rewards players with good iron play, solid putting and great scrambling ability. This season, Poston ranks 32nd on TOUR in Scrambling and is inside the top 90 in both SG: Putting and SG: Tee-to-Green.
While “top 90” may not sound appealing to everyone, we must remember that this tournament is insanely watered down due to the major event next week and Poston’s season metrics actually put him toward the top of this field. This tournament is a great opportunity for Poston to bring home a win as he has been playing his best golf of the season with two top-10 finishes over his past five tournaments.
I would play this total down to 67.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout: Round 4 Under 67.5 Strokes
This is another prop we hit on Saturday, though we got in at 68. While PrizePicks made the right move adjusting this number, they did not move it enough for me to not take it again.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is T8 at 13-under par after shooting a 66 on Saturday. We continue to get good value on Bezuidenhout because of his poor start to the tournament on Thursday.
However, he has rebounded in a big way with outstanding play on both Friday and Saturday. Between rounds one and two, Bezuidenhout saw a 158% increase in SG: Around-the-Green, a 105% increase in SG: Approach-the-Green and a 600% increase in SG: Tee-to-Green.
While Bezuidenhout did regress slightly on Saturday, he was still able to shoot a 66 and get under this total. With how strong Bezuidenhout's game has been from top-to-bottom lately, I believe it is far more likely Sunday's round will be more similar to rounds two and three than round one.
I would not play this number any lower than 67.5.
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C.T. Pan: More Birdies in Round 4 than Maverick McNealy
This prop will be graded as a loss if they have the same amount of birdies (eagles/aces count as birdies in this prop). That being said, Sunday should be yet another great day to fade Maverick McNealy.
We are continuing to get good value in fading McNealy because of his 63 on Friday. However, in Saturday's article I alluded to how his shaky iron play would be his undoing over the weekend.
That is exactly what happened Saturday as he saw a 153% decrease in SG: Approach-the-Green and a 93% decrease in SG: Tee-to-Green between rounds two and three. This was predictable due to McNealy's poor play this season leading up to this tournament as he has failed to finish inside the top-25 in nine straight stroke-play tournaments.
Iron play is a big element in this tournament and that is a mismatch between C.T. Pan and McNealy as Pan ranks higher amongst the remaining field than McNealy in both SG: Approach-the-Green (first) and SG: Tee-to-Green (22nd).
Emiliano Grillo: Round 4 Under 10 Fairways Hit
I am also fading a few golfers off the tee-box on Sunday, starting with Emiliano Grillo, who is T2 at 16-under par after shooting a 65 on Saturday.
After successfully hitting this same prop in round three, we are going after it again. As I mentioned yesterday, Grillo's driving success was not sustainable over the weekend.
This season, Grillo is hitting fairways at a 65.4% clip. While that is very good, it is far below the 82.1% clip he boasted through the first two rounds.
Regression caught up to Grillo in round three as he only hit eight fairways (57.1%). While I believe he will positively regress from that figure, he should fall somewhere between 60-70%.
Even if Grillo hits 70% of fairways on Sunday, that will still only put him between 9.5-10 fairways hit. Obviously you can not hit half of a fairway, but it makes me think that the worst-case scenario is this play becomes a push.
I would not play this total lower than 10.
Zach Johnson: Round 4 Under 10.5 Fairways Hit
The other golfer I am fading off the tee-box on Sunday is Zach Johnson, who is T36 at 8-under par after shooting a 67 on Saturday.
Johnson is another guy who I believe is facing some regression with his driver entering Sunday. Between rounds two and three, Johnson caught fire with his driving accuracy by hitting fairways at an 89% clip.
This figure is far above his season average of 60.52%, which ranks him at 101st on TOUR this season. I believe it is far more likely his fourth round goes more similarly to round one, where he hit just 64.3% of fairways and went under this total.
I would play this total down to 10.
