With the PGA TOUR season wrapped up, LIV Golf has again tried to fit itself into a dead spot on the golf calendar with its event this week in the Boston area.
The additions to the tour will get the headlines with Cameron Smith, Joaquin Niemann, Harold Varner III, Cameron Tringale, Marc Leishman and Anirban Lahiri all set to make their debuts this week.
These are the names really worth diving into this week as well since they've all been in action recently during the FedEx Cup playoffs, while the rest of the field has had an extended layoff (outside of a few playing on the Asian Tour or DP World Tour).
It's also worth noting that last time out, Henrik Stenson popped up and won his debut at a solid price. Those are the type of guys we've seen win these events so far: It's been the players who have been in ruts on the main tours rather than the higher-profile stars.
The Course
The International is set to host the event. It's a course we haven't seen before and will measure at 6,944 yards for a par 70.
The course is tree-lined on most holes, so players will have to avoid big misses off the tee, or else they'll wind up in the forest. On paper it looks like a classic accuracy course where the shorter hitters should do fine. If the longer hitters are having a good driving week though, they should overpower it and set up a lot of wedges.
The first and 14th holes normally play as par fives for the members but will be long par fours for the pros this week, both measuring well over 500 yards. There are also five par threes, four of which are at least 170 yards, so a strong approach game from that range will be necessary as well.
The Favorites
For the first time, someone other than Dustin Johnson tops a LIV Golf odds board. Cameron Smith opens here in the +450 range with DJ right behind at +650. Niemann closes out this top tier at around +700. Of the group, I think Niemann's ball striking sets up best here, but I'm not really interested at these prices.
Talor Gooch, Louis Oosthuizen and Patrick Reed come in next between +1200 and +1800. Gooch is the one whom I'd expect to be the best fit here from this range. He's always been a more precise player off the tee and on approach rather than relying on length, so it should be a favorable setup for him.
The +2000s are made up of LIV vets and newbies alike. Paul Casey, Brooks Koepka, Matthew Wolff, Abraham Ancer, Sergio Garcia, Bryson DeChambeau, Varner, Branden Grace and Charles Howell III all make up this range.
Of the group, Abraham Ancer is the play for me at +2800 on BetRivers. He's probably the best total driver of the bunch with above average length and accuracy. He's also a good enough iron player that he should contend here.
The Midtier
In this spot, I'll go to Anirban Lahiri at +6000 on BetRivers. Lahiri closed out the PGA TOUR season with some solid ball striking performances. He ended up finishing eighth at the Wyndham, and even though he missed the cut at the St. Jude to open the playoffs, it was his short game that let him down.
This week, I'm focusing mostly on the accuracy off the tee since the trees seem to be the only real issue. Lahiri has been above average in that regard on the PGA TOUR this season, so I'd expect that to carry over into this field as well.
We'll also back Adrian Otaegui at +8000 on BetMGM. Otaegui isn't really know for his length in Europe. He just finds fairways and relies on his short game to carry him. That could be the model for success here. He's played well on the World Tour all season with five finishes of sixth or better, including third at the Hero Open in his latest start. He was also sixth at the LIV London event, which was on the shorter side as well.
The LIV Boston Card
- Abraham Ancer +2800 (1.18 units)
- Anirban Lahiri +6000 (.55 units)
- Adrian Otaegui +8000 (.41 units)
Total Stake: 2.14 Units
