While odds for all four majors are available at most sportsbooks, it's the Masters that sees odds fluctuate more than the others.
Last year, it was Jordan Spieth. The 2015 Masters champion entered 2021 in a rut, to say the least. His play kept improving throughout January, February and March, and he finally registered a win at the Valero Texas Open, which is the final tournament before players head to Augusta National.
How drastic was Spieth's turnaround according to oddsmakers? He started the year at larger than +5000 to win the green jacket for a second time. Spieth gradually climbed the odds boards as he improved, and after winning in San Antonio, though, he even became the betting favorite at some sportsbooks.
For the 2022 Masters, you can look to Collin Morikawa, whose rapid ascension to golf stardom is remarkable. Entering the fall portion of the 2021-22 PGA TOUR season, Morikawa was as high as +2200 to win the green jacket. Then, he became the first American to win the Race to Dubai on the European Tour and had a five-stroke lead after three rounds at the Hero World Challenge in December.
While he didn't hold on in the Bahamas, Morikawa moved down to +1200 across the board.
So, is there a 2022 version of Spieth out there, someone who could post impressive results to start the year and see their number at Augusta go way, way down?
Our team of GolfBet analysts looked into it, and here are the three players who stood out:
Patrick Cantlay (+2200, Caesars)
Jason Sobel: I also picked Cantlay as my pick to break through and win a major in 2022. If there’s one major I like him a little more at than the others, though, it’s the Masters, where he finished ninth and 17th in his previous two starts before a missed cut last year.
At its core, Augusta National is a second-shot golf course, so I’ll always take a shot on a great iron player. Collin Morikawa certainly fits the bill, as the reigning best second-shot player on the planet, and I expect him to be a popular play in April. I also like Sam Burns to climb the leaderboard in his initial Masters start, and Corey Conners and Tony Finau to contend.
The pick right now, though, is Cantlay, who should take that next step in superstar status this year – and nothing solidifies that status like a player slipping his arms into a green jacket.
Marc Leishman (+6600, BetMGM)
Chris Murphy: My pick to win The Masters this year as it stands today would be one of Collin Morikawa or Justin Thomas, but neither has odds that I see as worth betting this far in advance. So instead, I’ll give you a player with some betting value in Marc Leishman.
Leishman loves Augusta National, as shown by his three top-10 finishes in nine appearances. It was also the only place where he turned a top-15 result during his horrendous stretch of golf following the COVID break in 2020. His 13th-place finish in that November Masters highlighted to me that he is a guy where we can throw out his form and rely on him to compete for a green jacket every year.
Those are the types of players that I want to buy for futures, especially as he plays well in several events in the lead up to the first major of the season.
Leishman is a solid value at +6600 as we roll into the new year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it ultimately be the best number available to us before they tee it up in April.
Corey Conners (+6600, PointsBet)
Justin Bailey: There aren’t a lot of names that stand out to me when it comes to Masters futures. I was able to snag Louis Oosthuizen at 80-1 months ago, but that number is long gone. If there is a guy whose number could get worse the week of the tournament, I wouldn’t be surprised if it were Corey Conners.
Is Conners likely to win? Probably not, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Conners’ number dropped into the 50-1 range or shorter depending on his form heading into the tournament.
Conners is one of the best iron and off-the-tee players in the game, ranking 17th and fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee per Data Golf’s True Strokes Gained metric over the last 12 months.
The big “if” with Conners is whether his putter shows up or not. With a T10 and a T8 in his last two trips to Augusta, I’ll take a shot on him at +6600.
